ZenPundit
Thursday, May 05, 2005
 
ATTEMPTING TO DETER AN EFFECTIVE NUCLEAR DETERRENCE POLICY

I have to hand it to former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, he stands to all foreign policy thinkers as a beacon of consistency. Not that he has not changed many of his positions 180 degrees over the years, he has, it's just that he managed to be so wrong on both sides of so many issues.

Please read this intellectually muddled, myopic and morally compromised screed on deterrence policy from one of America's most strategically incompetent statesmen since James Buchanan. Now contrast it with this. Or this.

The only thing that should be considered "illegal, immoral or incredibly dangerous" would be McNamara regaining any sort of influence on national policy.
 
Comments:
I do not necessarily agree with McNamara's essay, either, although I am not convinced we should entirely dismiss it. On topics as serious as thermonuclear war, deterrence, and the handling of nations that currently possess or that want to possess nuclear weapons, I believe the debate needs to be well-rounded and representative of the full spectrum of thoughts and arguments, rather than just restricted to one side (be it the left or right). Having a one-sided argument keeps some number of ideas out of the conversation, and this is one area that needs deep, thorough, and exhaustive debate regardless of where one is placed in the spectrum.
 
hey Von,

I agree with you that we ought not to be excluding voices but McNamara's advice here is mostly irrelevant to some of our most pressing nuclear-related concerns. He seems stuck in a kind of time warp circa 1983.

I'm a lot less worried about American or Russian throw weight figures or precise numbers of warheads than I am about deterring non-state actors from nuclear terrorism. Or deterring crackpot regimes from proliferation activities.

McNamara is correct that nuclear war would be horrific but we knew that already. Plus, he seems to think we have all forgotten that he *personally* bears a huge share of the responsibility for initiating the 1960's arms race and then cementing those sky high figures with the MAD doctrine.
 
Hi mark,

I'm with you regarding the spreadng of nukes to rogue nations and small groups. In fact, what is the current thinking/status of the black market or underground movement of nuclear materials out of Russia?
 
Mark,

N. Korea may be getting ready to test a nuclear device. See http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/nkorea_nuclear_test. I just wanted to make sure you saw it.
 
Hey V.

The unfortunate thing about radiological bombs is the radioactive material is so ubiquitous in modern countries that al Qaida doesn't need contacts in Russia or Pakistan to build a " dirty bomb", just in the medical waste field.

I'm not up on why feet are dragging on Nunn-Lugar other than to speculate that local Russian officials are stealing an unacceptable percentage of that clean-up aid and we want reforms before sending increased cash. That would be the only good reason considering the state of Russian nuclear facilities ( chewing gum, string and a little cesnium, plutonium, paper clip....).

Breaking up AQ Khan's ring and toppling the Taliban seems to have put a real nuke out of Bin Laden's reach. The Russians have become increasingly cooperative on Iran's nuke program - though that may stop if we continue to follow self-serving EU advice to rhetorically poke Russia in the eye once a week. The Baltics are free, belaboring for an apology on the Russian's 6oth anniversary was a pointless irritation - which the EU likes to separate Russia and the U.S. Why we are going along with this I'm not sure.

North Korea's nuclear test program is either a fake for extortionate reasons or if real, will destabilize the region - much of the blame here is China's and South Korea's. China controls nearly 100 % of the DPRK's energy and the ROK keeps Pyongyang alive with aid. Frankly, I see a better chance of cutting a deal with Beijing. Seoul is in a hypernationalistic-romantic detente fantasy world right now
 
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