ZenPundit
Wednesday, July 06, 2005
 
CHINA AND THE IMPERIAL GERMANY ANALOGY

Daniel Starr discusses the recent comparisons made of " rising power " China with another " rising power" looking for a place in the sun a century ago, Imperial Germany. This post is an extension of the ongoing discussion at Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal. Daniel writes:

"Of course, Germany in 1914 chose war despite a prospering economy. But by then "war for glory" was an established tradition, even a custom, for German leaders: under the Prussian kings and under Bismarck, the Prussian/German state had expanded and secured itself over and over through deliberately chosen wars. By contrast, China has no tradition of "glorious" war: war is just a tool of statecraft for traditional Chinese foreign policy, and a second-class tool at that -- right now China's leaders tend to see America as much more war-prone than themselves. So if China's leaders can continue to hold power by giving their people rising incomes, they have no reason, and no tradition, to pull them toward war."

My commentary:

Historically, China going to war for reasons of " face", like the 1979 Punishment campaign, against Vietnam, differed significantly from the reasons that Bismarck fought the wars of German unification and the Franco-Prussian War. Even moreso the geopolitical reasoning of leading members of the Kaiser's Grossgeneralstab like von before the Great War which were eventually exemplified in the terms of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

Germany was angling for hegemonic domination of the s Eurasian landmass by military force and German leaders felt justified by the international protectionist trading regime that was, longitudinally speaking, going to strangle Germany if the situation did not change. China, despite their current avaricious hunger for petro-resources, does not need to overcome anything remotely like the structural economic disadvantages in terms of tariffs and raw materials facing Berlin in 1914.

Quite the opposite, I'd say.
 
Comments:
Furthermore, Mark, I'd point out that Germany fought wars for very different reasons under the Kaiser and under Bismark. The wars of German unification were a masterful and calculated challenge to the status quo on the part of Bismark. Once he had achieved his goals he stopped fighted and worked to consolidate German power. The Kaiser, on the other hand, maintained an aggressive and needlessly confrontational foreign policy that helped lead to WWI and his own downfall.

Bismark may have used a German tradition of "war for glory" towards his end of unifying Germany and securing a dominant place for his newly united nation. He did not, however, choose war because of those traditions. It is the Kaiser's motives that fit Starr's characterization, not Bismark's.
 
Excellent post Mark, and excellent comment Jacob.

China is much more peaceful than Germany, both by modern history and contemporary history. But one intelligent idiot, and a lot of foolish idiots, managed to destroy the world's earlier globalization and usher in a terrible century.

The same thing could still happen again, for the same reason: human stupidity.

-Dan tdaxp
 
Hi Jacob, Hi Dan

I concur with you Jacob on Bismarck vs. Kaiser Wilhelm II, you summarized the difference very well. Though The Iron Chancellor has more in common with the Kaiser on war than either man has with the Chinese politburo today.

Dan, I too am worried about a nationalist-PLA fringe moving front and center someday in the CCP. Perhaps in response to a move by Taiwan coupled with economic problems and popular discontent. That would unseat the whole " Peacefully Rising" theory in a hurry.
 
Mark,

Great point on Taiwan. After a quick and relatively bloodless war (say, one that sees the PLA Navy destroyed by the US Navy, perhaps at the cost of some carriers, &c, with only limited interdiction of commercial shipping and no nuclear weapons), China would be in the same situation as Argentina in 1982.

That government didn't survive long.

-Dan tdaxp
 
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