COUNTERVAILING ARGUMENTSMyke Cole
in the new feature article " Meet The New War, Same as The Old War
" in U.S. Cavalry On Point
counsels caution that revolutionary new forms of warfare may end up being more familiar than we expect. An excerpt:"When Microsoft exploded onto the scene in the early 90’s, it sparked a new epoch of computing in which processing power was moved to desktop “personal computers” (PCs) and off of the large back-end servers to which most users connected via terminals. Technology analysts and pundits alike heralded this as a new and unchangeable computing paradigm. The past was dead, PCs were the future.
New advents in web technology began to change all that before the ink was dry on those predictions. Sophisticated Cold-Fusion and Java development made a lot of applications easier and cheaper to run on large web servers, making it far easier for users to simply connect to the web through a less powerful computer and have their work done on the back end. Companies like Austin based ClearCube have in some cases already eliminated the PC altogether in several universities, county court systems and two Air Force bases. Seattle based PopCap Games has long replaced Minesweeper and Solitaire as the ultimate waster of productive worker hours through a product line of sophisticated games playable entirely via the web. All any user needs to do most functions, from email to video games to data mining, is have a dumb terminal with internet access.
In less than ten years, the IT of the future looks largely like the IT of the past.
Open source reporting indicates our present major conventional threats; China, Iran and North Korea showing signs of military buildup. Worse, such reporting is proving more accurate than the assessments delivered by our own intelligence services.
...The Times article cited above points out where China’s expenditures have gone, and the list is hardly an indicator of a 4GW strategy: New long-range cruise missiles, hi-tech warships, attack submarines, precision guided munitions and surface-to-surface missile technology.
North Korea’s recent media blitz is due not to 4GW methods of message warfare (Kim Jong-Il appears like a madman uniformly in the press), but rather to the possibility of good old-fashioned nuclear détente."
Go read the whole thing