ZenPundit
Thursday, October 05, 2006
 
NEW CORE BLINDNESS BUT OLD CORE RISING ?

Two contradistinct recent messages at Chicago Boyz from the esteemed Lexington Green, both worthy of attention.

First, Lex draws attention to the paucity of American public attention and knowledge about New Core powers like India and even moreso, Brazil, in this post, but later framed even more precisely in this comment:

"There are these BRIC countries, which we all think are darned important. Educated people who are interested in international politics and economics is a fair description of the audience I am thinking of. To generalize, such people know lots about Russian history, though less about what is going on over there now. They are familiar with the large volume of writing about China, which is of uneven quality and reaches inconsistent conclusions. India is at least on the mental map, but really not well known at all except for expats and enthusiasts or people with a concrete interest in the place. Brazil is a nearly blank slate.

Not good. Germany, France, even Japan, are the countries of the past. China and India are at least an order of magnitude larger in terms of population, and potential power and influence.

We need to get our heads around all this."

I agree.

And in a second post by Lex, I see Robert Conquest's Anglospheric vision is taking shape in the form of a think tank, The Anglosphere Institute.

Complementary concerns, not antagonistic ones.
 
Comments:
Excellent post. One should not forget the same goes for the two lesser "New Core" powers, South Africa (the most important country in Africa if it continues to develop well) and Indonesia (in too geopolitically important an area to be allowed to fail, as well as the largest "Muslim" democracy).

I tried to point CB readers in the direction of some good books about Brazil, but from living in Miami and talking to Brazilians in the Navy, it really seems quite necessary to spend time in Brazil to develop a cohesive understanding of it that could make one a good analyst or expert on the country.

Lastly, with Brazil & South Africa in mind, the rise of the Christian South, as explained in great detail by Philip Jenkins in "The Next Christendom" & his follow-up book, "The New Faces Of Christianity", the evangelical faith of people in both countries is going to play a larger role both in providing basic social functions and shaping worldviews, but also in deeply influencing domestic politics. As America is and will continue to experience this phenomenon as well (hopefully with far more input from evangelicals than fundamentalists), this places us in a unique position to better understand Brazil and South Africa, as well as giving us some serious common ground to stand on with them.
 
Bom Gia eddie !

I agree. I should have gone to Brazil while I still had some Portuguese fresh under my belt. Now it's long gone :o(

I'm bearish on Indonesia retaining it's present territorial integrity 20 years from now but I'm hopeful that S.A. can pull it together. Vital for connecting Africa to the Core.
 
Re: Indonesia

I want to be bearish but if the USG and Indonesia can find ways to overcome often misguided legislation that prevents good mil to mil training and intel/police training, then they can get the assistance they need to upgrade and evolve their security services and armed forces to deal with the violent side of separtists insurgencies and terrorist campaigns.

One also looks at recent events since 2002 with hope, because they're learning how to craft a fine balance between force and diplomacy, as well as providing economic and political incentives to separtist islands and groups that bring them back from the brink.

Of grave concern is the fraying relationship between Indonesia and Australia over terrorism and immigration. This relationship is vital to both's interests, but especially to the territorial integrity of Indonesia. Recent arguments with Singapore and Malaysia are not helping matters either, but these may just be signs of a more assertive and confident Indonesia.

Sorry you did not venture to Brazil when the language was fresh in your mind, but there's always a second chance provided you're up for a bit more study in the future.

One could argue Brazil is a heck of a vacation spot, and if Lady ZenPundit would approve, perhaps even some "political tourism" as well. Flights out of Miami are not too pricey either.
 
Mark, thanks for the links.

One quibble, Robert Conquest, a good man for sure, has a slightly different take on the Anglosphere than I do. Conquest advocates a political union, something like what was being advocated circa 1900. I agree more with the ideas of Jim Bennett, who advocates what he calls a "networkd commonwealth" between the Anglosphere countries, basically a web of treaties for mutual defense, economic and scientific cooperation, and greater freedom to move and work in the various countries for their citizens. This would not violate sovereignty and would allow issue-specific cooperation. I think for now that a political union is neither necessary nor desirable.
 
I remembered I had a post on Bennett's blog about Conquest's proposal. The comments were good.
 
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