tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-51134292024-03-07T00:28:40.344-08:00ZenPunditZenpundit - a NEWSMAGAZINE and JOURNAL of scholarly opinion.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.comBlogger2434125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-39055687055427188482007-11-19T20:34:00.000-08:002007-11-19T21:04:58.623-08:00<strong>WE'RE MOVING ....TO ZENPUNDIT.COM</strong><br /><br /><img src="http://www.lincproject.org/toolkit/images/moving_truck.jpg" /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#336666;"><em>"FABulous" new site!! Finally, your blog doesn't look like a 1st-gen jalopy that has had various innovations welded onto it as they've arrived!"</em></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#336666;"> - Shane Deichman</span></strong><br /><br />A few of you, mostly blogfriends of the computer geek variety, have had some advance notice but tonight I'm proud to announce that <strong><em>Zenpundit</em></strong> is moving off of Blogger and to a new home:<br /><br /><span style="font-size:180%;"> <strong><a href="http://zenpundit.com/">ZENPUNDIT.COM</a></strong></span><br /><strong><span style="font-size:100%;"></span></strong><br />Credit for this long overdue move on my part goes entirely to <a href="http://www.determineddesigns.com/"><strong>Mrs. Zenpundit's</strong> </a>creativity and long hours of hard work that she put in on this project. Also worthy of thanks, is <strong><a href="http://www.seanmeade.blogspot.com/">Mr. Sean Meade </a></strong>- who lit a fire under us and provided constructive criticism and advice ( like pointing out that I had the worst sidebar in the known blogosphere) and my blogriends who opined on progress via email. It was a help!<br /><br />Cross-posting will continue here for a short time as I realize not all my readers visit daily but I look forward to adjourning sine die and settling into my new blog. Hope to see you all there!markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-26311138896632321742007-11-19T18:49:00.000-08:002007-11-19T18:54:38.298-08:00<b>DNI'S LATEST BLOGGER</b><br /><br /><strong>Dr. Chet Richards</strong>, at <strong><a href="http://certain2win.wordpress.com/">Certain to Win</a></strong>.<br /><br />Who knows? Perhaps someday we will even see <strong>William Lind</strong> blogging.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-65269687755172171052007-11-18T08:49:00.000-08:002007-11-18T09:29:46.220-08:00<b>RECOMMENDED READING</b><br /><br />Many irons in the fire this morning and I'm slurping down coffee fast and furiously but here it is:<br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#ff0000;">Top Billing</span></strong>!<a href="http://abumuqawama.blogspot.com/"><strong> abu muqawama</strong> </a>- "<a href="http://abumuqawama.blogspot.com/2007/11/petraeus-picks-next-generation.html">Petraeus Picks the Next Generation</a>"<br /><br />I hereby promote this gentleman to the status of " daily read". You should too.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adam-elkus"><strong>Adam Elkus</strong> </a>- "<a id="title_permalink" title="Permalink" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adam-elkus/resilience-and-american-s_b_72502.html">Resilience and American Security</a><br /><br />Nice piece by Adam. Historically, when an armed service is out of the national spotlight as the Navy is today, it becomes a time of either intellectual growth or ossification within it's officer corps.<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://threatswatch.org/">The Center For Threat Awareness</a></strong> in <a href="http://threatswatch.org/rapidrecon/2007/11/the-center-for-threat-awarenes/">"Think Tank 2.0" form has been launched</a>! ( I knew it was coming but a hat tip to <strong><a href="http://www.shloky.com/?p=858">Shlok</a></strong> nonetheless and congrats to <a href="http://haftofthespear.com/2007/11/silent-no-more/"><strong>Michael Tanji</strong> </a>and his compadres)<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/">Strategic Security Blog</a></strong> - "<a href="http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/white_house_guidance_led_to_ne.php">White House Guidance Led to New Nuclear Strike Plans Against Proliferators, Document Shows</a>". Hat tip to <strong>Wiggins</strong> at<strong><a href="http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/"> OSD</a></strong>.<br /><br />I'd this one a must-read for national security wonks. It's also good evidence as to how specialist blogs can easily outclass the reportage of even flagship MSM outlets.<br /><br /><strong>Fabius Maximus</strong>, often featured at <strong><a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/">DNI</a></strong>, now has a <a href="http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/">blog</a> - here are a couple of sample posts<br />"<a href="http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2007/11/13/empowered-individuals-and-super-empowered-ones/" rel="bookmark">Empowered individuals — and super-empowered ones!</a>" and "<a href="http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2007/11/16/the-essential-4gw-reading-list-chapter-two-donald-vandergriff/" rel="bookmark">The Essential 4GW reading list: chapter Two, Donald Vandergriff</a>".<br /><br /><a href="http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/"><strong>Dr. Barnett</strong> </a>has been spotted <a href="http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2007/11/recent_pic.html">attending Matrix conventions</a>.<br /><br />That's it!markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-9579568566274585292007-11-16T19:05:00.001-08:002007-11-16T19:54:28.236-08:00<b>HOPPING ON THE BLOGOSPHERIC BOYD BOOK BANDWAGON</b><br /><br /><img src="http://images.barnesandnoble.com/images/12160000/12165077.jpg" /><br /><br /><strong>Colonel Frans Osinga, PhD</strong>, who gave a tour de force lecture at <strong><a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/boyd/2007_conference/report.htm">Boyd 2007</a></strong>, managed to prevail upon his publisher to sell a paperback version of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0415459524/ref=nosim/globalguerril-20"><strong><em>Science, Strategy and War:The Strategic Theory of John Boyd</em></strong> </a>at a price non-billionaires could afford.<br /><br />I will be reviewing <strong><em>Science, Strategy and War</em></strong> in December and - tentatively - organizing a roundtable discussion at <a href="http://www.chicagoboyz.net/"><strong>Chicago Boyz</strong></a><strong>,</strong> most likely after Christmas. If you are a blogger, academic or a current or former member of the armed services and are interested in participating, send me an email at <a href="mailto:zenpundit@hotmail.com">zenpundit@hotmail.com</a>.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-89797901307294134262007-11-16T10:39:00.001-08:002007-11-16T10:44:30.795-08:00<b>A DIVERSION FROM THE USUAL SUBJECT MATTER</b><br /><br /><img src="http://www.optimumperformance.com.sg/index3_files/kettlebell.jpg"><br /><br />Over at <strong><a href="http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/5331.html">Chicago Boyz</a></strong>.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-84449045185808825092007-11-14T19:55:00.000-08:002007-11-14T21:13:47.023-08:00<b>THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE WARLORD</b><br /><br /><img src="http://i56.photobucket.com/albums/g200/magnareid/frazetta01.jpg" /><br /><br /><strong><a href="http://kentsimperative.blogspot.com/">Kent's Imperative</a></strong> had a post up that would have been worthy of <strong><a href="http://cominganarchy.com/">Coming Anarchy</a></strong>:<br /><br /><a href="http://kentsimperative.blogspot.com/2007/11/enigmatic-biographies-of-damned.html">Enigmatic biographies of the damned </a><br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#336666;">"....Via the Economist this week, we learn of the death of an adversary whose kind has nearly been forgotten. Khun Sa was a warlord who amassed a private army and smuggling operation which dominated Asian heroin trafficking from remotest Burma over the course of nearly two decades. In the end, despite indictment in US courts, the politics of a failed state permitted him to retire as an investor and business figure, and to die peacefully in his own bed.<br /><br />The stories of men such as these however shaped more than a region. They are the defining features of the flow of events in a world of dark globalization. Yet these are not the biographies that are taught in international relations academia, nor even in their counterpart intelligence studies classrooms. The psychology of such men, and the personal and organizational decision-making processes of the non-state groups which amassed power to rival a princeling of Renaissance Europe, are equally as worthy of study both for historical reasons as well as for the lessons they teach about the nature of empowered individuals.<br /><br />Prospective human factors and leadership analysts are not the only students which would benefit from a deeper pol/mil study of the dynamics of warlords and their followers in the Shan and Wa states. The structures which were left behind upon Khun Sa’s surrender were no doubt of enduring value to the ruling junta, and tracing the hostile connectivity provided to a dictatorial government by robust transnational organized crime is an excellent example of the kombinat model in a unique context outside of the classic Russian cases..."</span></strong><br /><br />Read the rest<a href="http://kentsimperative.blogspot.com/2007/11/enigmatic-biographies-of-damned.html"> here</a>.<br /><br />There are no shortage of warlords for such a study. Among the living we have <strong><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walid_Jumblatt">Walid Jumblatt</a></strong>, the crafty chief of the Druze during the 1980's civil war in Lebanon, the egomaniacal and democidal <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Taylor_(Liberia)"><strong>Charles Taylor</strong> </a>of Liberia, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulbuddin_Hekmatyar"><strong>Gulbuddin Hekmatyar</strong> </a>the Islamist mujahedin commander and a large assortment of Somali, Colombian, Indonesian and El Salvadoran militiamen and paramilitaries. The history of the twentieth century alone offers up such colorful characters as "<strong><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhang_Zongchang">The Dogmeat General</a></strong>", the ghoulishly brutal<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ta_Mok"><strong> Ta Mok</strong> </a>of the Khmer Rouge, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Ungern_von_Sternberg"><strong>"The Mad Baron" Ungern von Sternberg</strong></a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermann_Ehrhardt"><strong>Captain Hermann Ehrhardt</strong> </a>and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pancho_villa"><strong>Pancho Villa</strong></a> among many others.<br /><br />What would such a historical/cross-cultural/psychological "warlord study" reveal ? Primarily the type of man that the German journalist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Konrad_Heiden"><strong>Konrad Heiden</strong> </a>termed "armed bohemians". Men who are ill-suited to achieving success in an orderly society but are acutely sensitive to minute shifts that they can exploit during times of uncertainty, coupled with an amoral sociopathology to do so ruthlessly. Paranoid and vindictive, they also frequently possess a recklessness akin to bravery and a dramatic sentimentality that charms followers and naive observers alike. Some warlords can manifest a manic energy or regularly display great administrative talents while a minority are little better than half-mad gangsters getting by, for a time, on easy violence, low cunning and lady luck.<br /><br />Every society, no matter how civilized or polite on the surface, harbors many such men within it. They are like ancient seeds waiting for the drought-breaking rains.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-50623766726741270292007-11-13T18:41:00.000-08:002007-11-13T19:21:57.262-08:00<b>A STROKE OF LUCK AND A MOMENT OF IRONY</b><br /><br /><img src="http://i21.ebayimg.com/03/i/05/2c/60/e9_1_b.JPG" /><br /><br />Some of my older readers may be familiar with the late <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortimer_Adler"><strong>Mortimer J. Adler</strong> </a>of the University of Chicago, a "popular" philosopher and lifelong advocate of "Great Books" and "Western Canon" programs of liberal education. One of Adler's many efforts in this regard was his editorship of The Encyclopedia Britannica 's 53 volume "Great Books of the Western World" series, which the public could buy on subscription, one volume at a time. <br /><br />It seems quaint now, in the Google age, to recall buying sets of encyclopedias or series like Great Books but as a product line, it had a definite market appeal for the GI generation that had suffered through depression and world war and only about half of whom had managed to graduate high school. I suspect they liked seeing the rows of "serious", leather-bound books on a shelf and took some pride in the fact that their children, the Boomers, had access to them for school work ( though they were probably used with as little enthusiasm as encyclopedias are used by students now).<br /><br />I mention this because earlier today, I picked up Adler's entire 53 volume Great Books set from a library for free, saving it from the discard pile when the librarian was kind enough to let me cart them away. Between forty and fifty years old, aside from a little dust, they are essentially brand new books of the highest quality. Few of them were ever opened and they will look quite handsome on my shelf, as I'm sure they once did on someone else's. Running from Homer to Freud they include about every "deep" book that we generally feel guilty that we never read yet. I've read quite a few ( though less than I imagined) and look forward to reading more and I am generally, quite pleased with myself for snagging them.<br /><br />Part of me though, suspects that Adler would have been chagrined to learn that in 2007 a library had no room or interest in his beloved canon. Or that college students could conceivably graduate from a university without ever having read, cover to cover, any "great book" whatsoever. Times change of course but some things have a lasting value and the Net generation is missing out on some of them.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-52597395523099505512007-11-12T20:37:00.000-08:002007-11-12T20:52:58.055-08:00<b>THE SMALL WARS JOURNAL HITS THE MSM BIG TIME</b><br /><br />The publisher and the editor-in-chief of the highly regarded <strong><em><a href="http://smallwarsjournal.com/">Small Wars Journal</a></em></strong>, respectively <strong>Bill Nagl</strong> and <strong>Dave Dilegge,</strong> are doing a public Q&A at noon on Tuesday with the powerhouse <strong><em><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2007/11/11/DI2007111100852.html">The Washington Post</a></em></strong>. I imagine that <a href="http://blogs.washingtonpost.com/earlywarning/"><strong>Bill Arkin</strong> </a>will be involved somewhere as well - but we can hope otherwise. ;o)<br /><br />Read about the details at the <strong><a href="http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/11/swj-the-war-over-the-war/">SWJ BLog</a></strong>.<br /><br />Submit <strong><span style="color:#ff0000;">YOUR</span></strong> questions<strong><a href="http://discuss.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/zforum/content/submit_iraqpolicy.htm"> here</a></strong>.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-21705685770904615722007-11-12T20:23:00.000-08:002007-11-12T20:27:54.553-08:00<b>OF NECESSITY, CRYPTIC</b><br /><br />I make no promises. However, there <strong><em>may</em></strong> be some very substantial changes coming here soon.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-34370536397791699962007-11-12T20:17:00.000-08:002007-11-12T20:22:47.955-08:00<b>MILDLY INTERESTING</b><br /><br />For wordsmiths,<strong><a href="http://www.visuwords.com/"> Visuwords</a>.</strong><br /><strong></strong><br />I looked for an embed code and did not see one anywhere on the site. If one exists, could the more technically capable out there point it out ? I'd like the graphic to appear in this post<strong>.</strong>markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-31925539890246436432007-11-11T11:09:00.000-08:002007-11-11T11:19:05.681-08:00<b><b>"...A FINAL RESTING PLACE FOR THOSE WHO HERE GAVE THEIR LIVES THAT THAT NATION MIGHT LIVE"</b></b><br /><br /><img src="http://www.mil.state.or.us/OMFH/FH_background2.png" /><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-size:180%;" ><span style="font-weight: bold;">November 11, 2007.</span></span>markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-61303693950518922712007-11-11T09:13:00.000-08:002007-11-11T11:29:23.887-08:00<b>DINNER WITH THE NEW MAPMAKER</b><br /><br /><img src="http://www.federalreview.com/uploaded_images/pentagons_new_map-764315.jpg" /><br /><br />Last night, I enjoyed a delicious meal at <a href="http://www.fogodechao.com/locations/chicagoIL.htm"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fogo de Chao</span> </a>in the company of <a href="http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Dr. Barnett</span></a>, his very bright and spirited daughter, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Emily</span>, fellow <a href="http://www.chicagoboyz.net/"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Chicago Boyz</span></a> blogger<span style="font-weight: bold;"> Lexington Green</span> and his gracious wife...umm..."<span style="font-weight: bold;">Mrs. Green</span>". As Brazilian cuisine is basically a salad followed by about seven pounds of meat, we may all still be in the process of digestion even as I write this post (Special thanks to <a href="http://www.seanmeade.blogspot.com/"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sean " Jack Bauer" Meade</span></a> and <span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(204, 51, 204);"><a href="http://www.determineddesigns.com/">Mrs. Zenpundit</a> </span>for facilitating the communication logistics of this get-together).<br /><br />This was my first occasion meeting Tom and he was pretty much as I had expected him to be, except taller. An interesting aspect of the discussion was that if you have seen Dr. Barnett's <a href="http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/media/thebrief.htm">televised brief</a>, that represents a modulated pacing, of his sometimes rapid-fire conversational delivery, highly energized by ideas and their prospective implementation. The discussion was wide-ranging and intriguing, though some elements of it have been or will be posted on Tom's blog as they related to his recent Central Asian tour with <span style="font-weight: bold;">Admiral Fallon</span>, chief of CENTCOM, but good books, politics, Japanese anime, various public intellectuals and writing all came up as topics of conversation.<br /><br />The food was excellent, as was the company. I'd like to thank Dr. Barnett for taking the time out of a very busy travel schedule with Emily for a social engagement with the Greens and myself, as well as for dinner. The generous gesture is much appreciated. It was also a pleasure to see Lex and his wife again. Hopefully, we can all sit down again sometime in the future.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-21612569857401964212007-11-11T08:21:00.000-08:002007-11-11T09:13:09.964-08:00<b>RECOMMENDED READING</b><br /><br />An eclectic grouping today. Feel badly that I have not posted much lately but I've been working on some short pieces for other venues, a couple of large projects at work and (today) getting my application papers together for a doctoral program ( hopefully, a joint degree if two departments will sign off. We'll see. I've learned to suspect the breezy assertions of university bureaucrats). Without further ado.<br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Top Billing! </span><a href="http://manwhoisthursday.blogspot.com/">The Man Who is Thursday</a></span> -"</span></span><a href="http://manwhoisthursday.blogspot.com/2007/11/creative-and-critical-or-taste-and.html">The Creative and the Critical, or Taste and Genius</a>"<h1 id="blog-title"><a href="http://manwhoisthursday.blogspot.com/"> </a></h1>This link was left by an anonymous commenter. It's good fodder for discussion and probably deserves a post of it's own in response, by me or <a href="http://www.tdaxp.com/"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Dan of tdaxp</span></a>. Like me, Dan's pretty busy these days so, we'll see if anyone gets to it. LOL! In any event, worth your time to read.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Robert Satloff</span> in <a style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;" href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/?nav=globaltop">WaPo</a> - "<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/09/AR2007110901897.html">How to Win The War Of Ideas</a>"<br /><br />One thought that arises reading Satloff, is that we need to distinguish the degree to which non-Salafist or secular Muslims are intimidated by takfiri death threats; to scenarios where they lack the resources to speak out effectively; and finally, the extent to which we are simply unaware of the intra-Muslim dialogue because it is entirely off of our radar.<br /><br /><a href="http://pundita.blogspot.com/"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pundita </span></a>-"<a href="http://pundita.blogspot.com/2007/11/speaking-your-truth-vs-fighting-ideas.html">Speaking your truth vs fighting the ideas of others</a>"<br /><br />Pundita critiques Satloff and argues that we are not very well suited to try an orchestrate other society's political debates over the fine points of Islamic theology and that investing deeply in promoting democratic or liberal governance, something we understand, is a wiser investment of scarce resources.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Thomas P.M. Barnett</span></a> - "<a href="http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2007/nov/11/build-better-fairy-dust-suffer-fewer-bad-actors/">Barnett: Build better fairy dust, suffer fewer bad actors</a>"<br /><br />Rule-sets and transparency go hand in hand with connectivity and intersectional convergence. Tom jumps on the <a href="http://www.themedicieffect.com/book/book.html"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">The Medici Effect</span></a> bandwagon. I'm waiting for him to read <a href="http://www.wikinomics.com/"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">Wikinomics</span></a> and see the congruency of the two books.<br /><br /><a href="http://swedemeat.blogspot.com/"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Swedish Meatballs Confidential</span></a> - "<a href="http://swedemeat.blogspot.com/2007/11/sinuous-sunday-sharp-end-of-altruism.html">Sinuous Sunday - The Sharp End of Altruism</a>" and "<a href="http://swedemeat.blogspot.com/2007/11/catch-all-suck-it-up-all-of-it.html">CATCH-ALL - Suck it Up - All of It</a>"<br /><br />The first is interesting. The second is important.<br /><br /><a href="http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Opposed System Design</span> </a>- "<a href="http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2007/11/08/bueno-de-mesquita-and-game-theorizing/">Game Theorizing with Bueno de Mesquita</a>"<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 102, 102);">"Another study evaluating Bueno de Mesquita’s real-time forecasts of 21 policy decisions in the European community concluded that “the probability that the predicted outcome was what indeed occurred was an astounding 97 percent.”</span><br /><br />Hmmm .... amazing ....but predicated on the existence of a particular cultural-epistemological basis of rationality ? Will this work with assessing mountain tribesmen in New Guinea or Vietnamese Politburo members ?<br /><br />That's it!markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-65059079913576810052007-11-08T20:33:00.001-08:002007-11-08T20:35:30.004-08:00<b>ADD TO SCHOLARSHIP, TAKE TDAXP'S SURVEY</b><br /><br /><a style="font-weight: bold;" href="http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2007/11/07/please-take-a-survey-for-science.html">On Creativity and Blogging</a>. You don't need to have a blog to take the survey so be a good egg and help him out.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-39967447822937970732007-11-08T15:03:00.000-08:002007-11-08T20:17:28.639-08:00<b>OPEN-SOURCE IN THE ANCIENT WORLD</b><br /><br /><img src="http://www.mlahanas.de/Greeks/Mythology/Images/AchillesAmbrosianIliad.jpg" /><br /><br />One of the more significant developments in terms of creativity in the past decade has been the advance of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_source">open-source platforms</a> that permit asynchronous but real-time, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massively_distributed_collaboration">mass collaboration</a> to occur. A phenomena that has been the subject of recent books like <span style="font-weight: bold;">Frans Johansson's</span> <a href="http://www.themedicieffect.com/"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">The Medici Effect</span></a> and <a href="http://www.wikinomics.com/book/"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">Wikinomics:How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything</span></a> by <span style="font-weight: bold;">Don Tapscott</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Anthony Williams</span>; or, become a functioning business model as with <a href="http://ross.typepad.com/"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Ross Mayfield's</span></a> <a href="http://www.socialtext.com/">Socialtext</a>; or, a metaphor for the evolution of a new dynamic of warfare, as in <a href="http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/johnrobb/"><span style="font-weight: bold;">John Robb's</span></a> book,<span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;"> <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/0471780790?tag=zenpundit-20&camp=14573&creative=327641&linkCode=as1&creativeASIN=0471780790&adid=0EC0FE0YEFAZTNEZBWPK&">Brave New War</a></span>. And nearly everyone with an ISP is familiar with Wikipedia and most have at least heard of Linux.<br /><br />The open source concept is a very useful one because it has efficiency, in both the evolutionary and economic senses, adapting faster than closed, hierarchical, competitors and at lower transactional cost ( the price for these advantages is diminished control and focus). As with scale-free networks, it was the advent of the internet and the web that brought the potential of mass collaboration to the attention of economists and social scientists. But did mass collaboration on the cognitive level (the physical level is as old Stonehenge or the pyramids) only start with the information revolution ?<br /><br />Probably not.<br /><br />If we look back far enough in the history of great civilizations, you will find semi-mythological figures like<span style="font-weight: bold;"> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homer">Homer</a></span> or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confucius"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Confucius</span></a> to whom great, even foundational, works of cultural creativity are attributed. Intellects of a heroic scale who were philosophers and kings, lawgivers, prophets or poets and who produced works of timeless genius. Except that they may either not have existed or their works represent efforts of refinement by many generations of anonymous disciples ( eventually, scholars) who interpreted, polished, redacted and expanded on the teachings of the revered master. <br /><br />This too was mass collaboration, over a much longer time scale and of a much more opaque character than Wikipedia. Scriptural works went through a similar process, whether it was the scribes of King James, or a medieval Ulemna favoring some teachings of the Hadith over others, or Jewish sages translating the Torah into Greek, despite occasional claims of divine inerrancy, most religious texts were shaped by a succession of human hands.<br /><br />What the Web has done is to vastly accelerate and democratize the process of mass collaboration and render it more transparent than ever before. <span style="text-decoration: underline;"></span>markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-27618059107777603002007-11-06T19:27:00.000-08:002007-11-06T20:44:56.132-08:00<b>TAKING A 2x4 TO THE METAPHORICAL HEAD OF VICTOR DAVIS HANSON</b><br /><br />Ouch! At <strong><a href="http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/">The SWJ Blog</a></strong>, <strong>LTC. Bob Bateman</strong>, the military historian who debunked the No Gun Ri "massacre" myth from the Korean War ( and thus, no Lefty), <a href="http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/11/the-abuse-of-military-history/">savages <strong>Victor Davis Hanson</strong>.</a> Brutal. I wonder if <a href="http://www.victorhanson.com/">Hanson </a>will feel forced to respond?<br /><br />Hat tip to <strong>Dave Dilegge</strong>.<br /><br /><strong>ADDENDUM:</strong><br /><br /><a href="http://www.victorhanson.com/articles/hanson110507A.html">Yep, he did</a><br /><br />Dave Dilegge informs me that he has temporarily pulled the link to Bateman but <a href="http://hnn.us/roundup/14.html#44326">suggested this one at HNN</a>. Sorry for any inconvenience to readers.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-57671344457700809932007-11-05T20:04:00.000-08:002007-11-05T20:37:15.101-08:00<b>PAKISTAN'S REAL CRISIS</b><br /><br /><img src="http://www.charter.com.pk/Images/Jinnah%20on%20Time.jpg" /><br /><br />Is not that the military dictator,<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ad4c.89JrSQk&refer=home"> General Pervez Musharraf has imposed martial law</a>. Much like Poland under<strong> Jaruzelski</strong> or the recent crackdown in Burma, martial law in Pakistan was not a transition from one kind of state to another but rather a shift from the hypocrisy of a velvet glove to the honesty of an iron fist. Pakistan is no more a dictatorship today than it was a month earlier.<br /><br />Pakistanis, it must be said, are not universally outraged by dictatorship per se. The wily and ruthless <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Zia-ul-Haq"><strong>General Zia ul- Haq</strong> </a>was a fairly popular figure in his day. Wild-eyed deobandi fanatics, opposed to Musharraf's regime, long for a Sharia-state tyranny that would be far more brutal and incompetent than is the current government in Islamabad. Nor is the growing corruption of the army in Pakistan the central problem; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benazir_Bhutto"><strong>Benazir Bhutto's</strong> </a>party, the democratic faction, once looted government coffers with gusto while wrecking the economy. Her father, once Prime Minister but later executed by Zia, was a notable menace to the concept of good governance.<br /><br />Pakistan's central problem is a crisis of legitimacy. Nationalism is a waning force these days and even anti-Indian feeling is sustained by a marriage of nationalism with Islamist radicalism. Once, a Pakistani leader could declare that Pakistani's " would eat grass" to make their country the nuclear equal of Hindu India. No more. Musharraf's fear of "national suicide" did not rouse his countrymen to his side and there are some, even in the army, who would hold up jihad above the nation. Well above.<br /><br />Without nationalism or state competence, people fall back on primary loyalties. Pakistan has no intrinsic reason to exist unless it can be welded together in men's minds.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-67305927939996899792007-11-05T19:35:00.000-08:002007-11-05T19:47:03.493-08:00<b>INSTANT HISTORY</b><br /><br /><img src="http://www.epic-usa.org/Portals/1/fiasco.JPG" /><br /><img src="http://www.opcofamerica.org/opc_awards/images/AssassinsGate.jpg" /><br /><br />Picked up both of these on a lark on Saturday, as I cruised through Border's with <strong><span style="color:#ff0000;">The Son of Zenpundit</span></strong>, who was getting some independent reader level books about Spider-Man fighting -well- some villain or other. The usual suspects.<br /><br />Any thoughts from readers as to how high these tomes merit being placed on the "Must read" pile ? I'm currently innundated with things to read, so prioritizing is a must.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-37115098104584726682007-11-05T09:43:00.000-08:002007-11-05T10:00:19.907-08:00<b>ARABISM, NATION-STATES AND ISLAM</b><br /><br />This should intrigue readers with a range of research interests and disciplinary perspectives. Reading it right now as I post.<br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>Dr. Christine Helms</strong> - "<a href="http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/files/nationless_states_stateless_nations.pdf">Arabism And Islam: Stateless Nations And Nationless States</a>" (PDF)<br /><br />Hat tip to <strong><a href="http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2007/10/nationless-stat.html">Colonel Lang</a>.</strong>markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-67886425624845327612007-11-04T06:49:00.000-08:002007-11-04T08:06:04.274-08:00<b>RECOMMENDED READING</b><br /><br />Sunday, Sunday, Sunday...where blog reaction is the attraction!<br /><br /><a href="http://www.seanmeade.blogspot.com/"><strong>Sean Meade</strong></a> - "<a href="http://seanmeade.blogspot.com/2007/11/catch-22.html">Catch-22</a>"<br /><br />Sean puts away his proofreader's blue pencil and dons the Hat of Literary Criticism to make an (accurate) point about generational zeitgeist.<br /><br /><a href="http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/"><strong>Global Guerillas</strong> </a>- "<a href="http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2007/11/on-open-source-.html">ON OPEN SOURCE GUERRILLA VANGUARDS</a>"<br /><br />Great theory post by John Robb. I'd say that the Maoists exploited a latent crisis of legitimacy rather than created one "ex nihilo". Both the Chinese Communists and the Kuomintang were a reaction against the collapse of the Q'ing and the inability <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuan_Shikai">Yuan Shih-kai </a>and various warlords to step into the breach. The history of China from the Boxer Rebellion to Mao's triumph in 1949 was a laboratory for questions of 4GW, state-building, state failure, foreign intervention, guerilla warfare theory, counterinsurgency and many of the issues with which statesmen and military commanders are wrestling with in Iraq.<br /><br /><strong>Shane </strong>and <strong>Curtis </strong>at<strong> <a href="http://dreaming5gw.com/">Dreaming5GW</a> </strong>- "<a href="http://www.dreaming5gw.com/2007/10/5gw_in_clausewitzs_trinity.php">5GW in Clausewitz’s Trinity</a>" and "<a href="http://www.dreaming5gw.com/2007/11/john_robb_on_open_source_guerr.php">John Robb: “On Open Source Guerrilla Vanguards”</a> <br /><br />Respectively, Shane is expanding on <a href="http://zenpundit.blogspot.com/2007/10/4gw-festival-of-fabius-maximus-to.html">the exchange here over Fabius Maximus </a>and Curtis delves into the above post by John. Speaking as a historian, what we know about about Soviet and American decision-making during the Cuban missile crisis offers a serious caution regarding game theory assumptions of rationality. Excomm was an exercise in attempting rationality but the "fog of war" was so dangerously opaque as to render such intentions almost moot. The problem of information was redoubled on the Soviet side due to the nature of the Soviet system and Khrushchev's political conflicts within the Presidium<br /><br /><strong>Dave</strong> at <a href="http://www.theglitteringeye.com/"><strong>The Glittering Eye</strong> </a>- "<a title="Permanent Link to Obama’s Proposal to Break the Impasse on Iran (Updated)" href="http://theglitteringeye.com/?p=3266" rel="bookmark">Obama’s Proposal to Break the Impasse on Iran (Updated)</a>"<br /><br />Dave gives his trademark serious evaluation to <strong>Senator Obama's</strong> proposal to give a presidential-level investment in diplomatic talks with Iran and he's right about Obama's monocausal explanation of Iranian behavior.<br /><br />While I am in favor of serious diplomatic negotiations withIran, I'm not crazy about a foreign policy neophyte like Obama a) taking a personal, presidential, lead in negotiating strategy - that's what the secretary of state is for when the president is green; and b) staking a brand-new administration's prestige on the outcome of negotiations with as difficult and hostile a diplomatic adversary as the Iranians. We don't need to unilaterally ratchet up the pressure on ourselves for a deal when enough real-world, strategic concerns abound.<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.tdaxp.com/">Dan of tdaxp</a></strong> - "<a href="http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2007/11/03/automaticity-automation-of-schemata.html">Automaticity (Automation of Schemata)"</a><br /><br />Dan's research is investigating a crucial cognitive process, one without which we'd have been hard-pressed to have gotten out of the stone age.<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.shloky.com/?p=850">Shlok</a></strong> has been published in <a href="http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/2007/10/issue-8-november-2007/"><strong><em>Pragati: The Indian National Interest Review</em></strong></a> with an article on Naxalite Rage ( no link). Congrats, Shlok !!<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://whirledview.typepad.com/whirledview/">CKR</a> </strong>- "<a href="http://whirledview.typepad.com/whirledview/2007/11/the-strategery-.html">The Strategery Article</a>"<br /><br /><strong>Cheryl Rofer</strong> identifies strategic paralysis at the heart of the Bush administration, for which she blames the president. I agree, though for different reasons. One reason would be the self-crippling, insularity of the information-flow around Mr. Bush and his key advisers (which ultimately, is also Bush's fault. A president pretty much gets the national security process he really wants to have). Only part of this distortion is ideological, much of it is court politics to keep control of the king's ear, so to speak. Hadley's origins as a national security expert, for example, were in the Kissingerian-dominated Ford administration, yet he reputedly leads the pack to "shoot the messenger" on Iraq, among the inner circle.<br /><br />That's it!markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-32739832666022869022007-10-31T20:32:00.000-07:002007-10-31T20:37:19.929-07:00<b>BEOWULF</b><br /><br /><object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/FgK2OMUP8t8&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/FgK2OMUP8t8&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object><br /><br />John Malkovich, Sir Anthony Hopkins, Angelina Jolie. Hmmmmmmmmm.......markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-5581305195905182762007-10-31T20:12:00.000-07:002007-10-31T20:20:05.011-07:00<b>MORE 4GW</b><br /><br /><strong><a href="http://wolfpangloss.wordpress.com/">Wolf Pangloss</a></strong> has a series of interesting posts on 4GW and information operations that readers might care to consider in light of the discussion <a href="http://zenpundit.blogspot.com/2007/10/4gw-festival-of-fabius-maximus-to.html">that has ensued in the comments section of the post on the strategic analysis of Fabius Maximus</a>. Wolf's posts are:<br /><br /><a title="Permanent Link to Democracies at 4GWar" href="http://wolfpangloss.wordpress.com/2007/10/28/democracies-at-4gwar/" rel="bookmark">Democracies at 4GWar</a><br /><br /><a title="Permanent Link to 4GW Jihad and the role of the World Media" href="http://wolfpangloss.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/4gw-jihad-and-the-role-of-the-world-media/" rel="bookmark">4GW Jihad and the role of the World Media</a><br /><br /><a title="Permanent Link to Conflict Map of the Counterjihad" href="http://wolfpangloss.wordpress.com/2007/10/30/conflict-map-of-the-counterjihad/" rel="bookmark">Conflict Map of the Counterjihad</a><br /><br /><a title="Permanent Link to Media Cheerleaders for Despair" href="http://wolfpangloss.wordpress.com/2007/10/31/media-cheerleaders-for-despair/" rel="bookmark">Media Cheerleaders for Despair</a>markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-46315423523578297852007-10-31T19:49:00.000-07:002007-10-31T19:53:30.555-07:00<b>APOLOGIA</b><br /><br />I have fallen behind on both comment and email response this week for which I apologize to my readers. I read everything and try to answer all messages relatively promptly but at times, this effort collides with real world commitments. Hopefully, I should be caught up tonight or sometime tomorrow.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-74352326407534744582007-10-30T17:58:00.000-07:002007-10-30T21:09:14.395-07:00<b>THE 4GW FESTIVAL OF FABIUS MAXIMUS</b><br /><br /><img src="http://www.s9.com/images/portraits/9366_Fabius.jpg" /><br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#336666;">" To summarize, we seek to radically change the cultures and political systems for much of the world, to halt foreign revolts and civil wars of which we do not approve, to bring global peace and prosperity, to make friends (even with those states whose rise we seek to restrain), and to “transform” our so far unreformable national security apparatus. Those who thought President Bush was kidding about these learned better in the months following our invasion of Iraq."<br /></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="color:#336666;">- Fabius Maximus</span></strong><br /><br />For some time now, an author whose nom de guerre is <strong>"Fabius Maximus"</strong>, after the ancient Roman general of the Punic wars, has been a regular and at times, prolific, contributor to the Boydian and 4GW school oriented <strong><a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/">Defense & the National Interest</a></strong>. Fabius, who comments here at <strong><em>Zenpundit</em></strong> on occasion, also set off one of the most popular, if heated and controversial, threads at <strong><a href="http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/index.php">The Small Wars Council</a></strong>, catching the attention of noted COIN strategist <strong>Col. David Kilcullen</strong>. Kilcullen's theories later became a subject of frequent critique from Fabius in his DNI articles.<br /><br />While I had hoped to meet Fabius in person at <strong><a href="http://www.defense-and-society.org/boyd/2007_conference/report.htm">Boyd 2007</a></strong>, he did not attend and I am not privy to his identity or professional background. Fabius' arguments must rise or fall entirely on their own merit and he has been content to engage his critics on this basis at the SWC and elsewhere. Clearly he is a member of the 4GW school and is an admirer of <strong>Col. John Boyd</strong>, <strong>William Lind, Dr. Martin van Creveld</strong> and <strong>Dr. Chet Richards</strong> but has not shrunk from advancing his own ideas or original criticisms.<br /><br />Recently, Fabius completed his tenth article in a series on America's Long War for DNI and, as Fabius has entertained and enraged members of the community of "reform" defense intellectuals and COIN practitioners, it is timely for us to take stock of his strategic argument:<br /><br /><strong>The Long War Series - from DNI's <a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/fabius/fabius_archive.htm">Fabius Maximus Archive</a></strong><br /><br /><strong>Part X</strong> - <a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/fabius/long_war_X.htm">One step beyond Lind: what is America’s geopolitical strategy?</a><br /><strong>Part IX</strong> - <a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/fabius/long_war_IX.htm">4GW at work in a community near you</a>,<br /><strong>Part VIII</strong> - <a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/fabius/long_war_VIII.htm">How to accurately forecast trends of the Iraq War</a>,<br /><strong>Part VII</strong> - <a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/fabius/long_war_VII.htm">Kilcullen explains all you need to know about the Iraq War</a>,<br /><strong>Part VI</strong> - <a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/fabius/long_war_VI.htm">The bad news is that Lind’s good news is wrong</a>,<br /><strong>Part V</strong> - <a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/fabius/long_war_V.htm">The Iraq War as a warning for America</a>,<br /><strong>Part IV</strong> - <a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/fabius/long_war_IV.htm">Beyond Insurgency: An End to Our War in Iraq</a>,<br /><strong>Part III</strong> - <a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/fabius/long_war_III.htm">Stories or statistics? Read and compare to find the truth!</a><br /><strong>Part II</strong> - <a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/fabius/long_war_II.htm">News from the Front: America’s military has mastered 4GW!</a><br /><strong>Part I</strong> – <a href="http://www.d-n-i.net/fabius/long_war_I.htm">America takes another step towards the “Long War,” </a><br /><br />I have read the roughly 20,000 words offered here previously and I re-read them for this post. I have also read most of the authors of the original works that Fabius Maximus cites in his series. Therefore, I feel qualified to offer a few observations in regard to the strategic paradigm that this body of work represents and the assumptions, clearly stated as well as implicit, upon which it is built.<br /><br />Many of the specific analytical criticisms of American policy and performance in Iraq and Afghanistan made by Fabius are incisive, some are rather questionable and a few are brilliant. I encourage you to read his efforts for yourself rather than simply accepting my word for it. What interests me most though, given the scope of the series, are his premises. As I discern them, they are:<br /><br /><strong>That 4GW is the environment in which we find ourselves conducting operations - and doing so quite poorly at that with a military predisposed toward 2GW offensives. Or irrelevantly on the strategic level where we happen to be executing COIN well on the tactical level.</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>We cannot significantly affect the internal dynamics of alien societies that we understand poorly or not at all, regardless of the carrots or sticks used. We are marginal factors at best.</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>American war policy is being constructed on the false analogy of the Cold War model.</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>Al Qaida is more phantom than menace.</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>War is the wrong conceptual metaphor and the wrong operational-bureaucratic response to the conflict in which we find ourselves.</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>Our response, which serves bureaucratic and factional interests at homes, undermines our global strategic position and wastes our economic strength.</strong><br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>A better grand strategy for America is nonintervention and reducing friction with the rest of the world. Or failing that, at least bolstering states, any states, rather than collapsing them into failure with military attack or other pressures ( Lind's "Centers of Order vs. Centers of Disorder")</strong><br /><br />If <strong>George Kennan</strong> argued for "Containment" of Soviet Communism in his <a href="http://www.historyguide.org/europe/kennan.html">"X" article </a>the best descriptor of the grand strategy of Fabius Maximus might be " Conservancy" - dialing down our kinetic response to terrorism to the surgical level and recognizing this contest as more ideological conflict than war and, in general, recognizing our limitations in attempting to become masters of the universe. Many readers would associate this paradigm with the Left but I believe that to be incorrect. Instead, reflecting a deeply paleoconservative reading of history and American traditions in foreign policy that historian <strong>Walter A. McDougal</strong> called "<a href="http://www.ashbrook.org/events/lecture/1997/mcdougall.html">Promised Land</a>" and others "city on a hill" and " isolationism".<br /><br />The virtues of "conservancy" as I interpret Fabius is that it minimizes both costs and future commitments for the United States, leaving us better able to afford to deal with strategic threats to vital national interests, when unanticipated threats arise, as they surely will. It would serve as a reality check on statesmen to pursue fewer, more coherent, simpler, more easily realizable and markedly cheaper objectives, which will have far higher probability of success ( as opposed to say, attacking Iran while engaged in Iraq. Or perhaps invading Russia in winter or fighting a land war in Asia. Some folks around PACOM with a few years ago with uber-journalist <strong>Robert Kaplan's</strong> ear, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200506/kaplan">thought an unprovoked war with China </a>was a splendid idea). When forced to intervene, our footprint will be light; more like British frontier agents of old or the 55 advisers in El Salvador in the 1980's than the invasion of Iraq. As a nation, our foreign policy would stay on the good side of the diminishing returns curve.<br /><br />The drawbacks include, in my view: being flatly incorrect about al Qaida's potential to initiate attacks on the operational or strategic level specifically, and about the threat of radical Islamist-Mahdist movements in general, when coupled with increasing capacities to leverage against complex systems ( see <strong><a href="http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/johnrobb/">John Robb's</a></strong> <strong><em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/0471780790?tag=zenpundit-20&camp=14573&creative=327641&linkCode=as1&creativeASIN=0471780790&adid=0A6EQMK2YJ9WVNJ0V7XD&">Brave New War</a></em></strong>); underestimating the geopolitical ripple effect of the U.S. shifting to a conservancy posture, upending the global security arrangements upon which the calculations of statesmen currently depend. The unanticipated consequences of the latter are large. Within two to three levels of unfolding decision-tree possibilities, any potential response by the U.S. is simply swamped. We benefit by the status quo. Changing our position imposes costs.<br /><br />I invite Fabius Maximus to respond as he likes and I will publish his remarks here, unedited. Readers are invited to offer their own critique in the comments section.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5113429.post-5150217135603471742007-10-28T19:51:00.000-07:002007-10-29T09:13:25.797-07:00<b>PORTALS, PLATFORMS AND RULE-SETS</b><br /><br />Blogfriend <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Critt Jarvis</span> has <a href="http://www.connectinginconversation.org/blog/">reinvented his online presence</a> and returned to some of his original intellectual concerns from back in the days when he was a founding member of <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">The New Rule-Sets Project</span>, later purchased by <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Enterra Solutions</span>. Critt is jumping off a post by<a href="http://www.micropersuasion.com/2007/10/how-the-portals.html"> Steve Rubel at Micro Persuasion</a> and extending the argument with "<a href="http://connectinginconversation.org/blog/2007/10/24/steve-rubel-is-right-do-you-know-why/">Steve Rubel is right, do you know why ?</a>":<br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">"He’s right. Here’s why. Web portals are social networks, and social networks aggregate to a global conversation market.</span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Like global or world cities — for example, New York, Paris, Tokyo, London — where, from the transparent nexus of culture, governance, infrastructure, commerce, and fashion, we expect to consistently have a really good time,</span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">The global conversation market has the necessary resources to accommodate a global social network.</span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">For a really good time in the global conversation market …</span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Find your portal to social networks</span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Web portals provide stability in social networks, requisite to emerging conversation markets.</span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Web portals provide growth of social networks.</span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Web portals provide resources for social networks.</span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Web portals provide infrastructure for social networks.</span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Web portals provide money for social networks.</span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Web portals provide rules for social networks.</span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Web portals provide security for social networks.</span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">And remember this</span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Absent stability, there’s no conversation market.</span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Absent growth, there’s no stability.</span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Absent resources, there’s no growth.</span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Absent infrastructure, there’s no resources.</span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Absent money, there’s no infrastructure.</span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Absent rules, trust me, there’s no institutional investor money.</span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">Absent security, the rules don’t work. </span><br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: rgb(51,102,102)">For me, the social networking wars are over. What I need to do now is find my place in the portals. Which makes me wonder, What is going to happen to Twitter?"</span><br /><br />One of the interesting things about Critt is his ability to embed a large number of important concepts at the implicit level in his writing. Critt's primary interest for the past few years has been facilitating "global conversation"; that is people to people connection on a global scale of magnitude. An interest that is congruent with his expertise in technical platforms as tools of communication.<br /><br />These platforms and by extension, the portals that serve as gateways, represent rule-set systems that offer maximum connectivity and transaction of a certain kind with a minimum of friction and direct cost. These are rule-sets for the enjoyment of "ordered liberty". For example, <a href="http://secondlife.com/"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Second Life</span></a> provides the user with system access and tools with which to communicate and create but within these strong minimalist confines, citizens of Second Life primarily must self-regulate. This contrasts with the fairly stringent, proprietary, ethos of other <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMORPG">MMORPG</a> like <a href="http://everquest.station.sony.com/"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Everquest</span></a> or <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><a href="http://www.worldofwarcraft.com/index.xml">World of Warcraft</a>. </span><br /><br />These services, while entertaining, stifle user creativity and innovation via techno-paternalism. Arguably, in an economic sense, these companies have a business model that opts for maintaining hierarchical control over outcomes within their system over maximizing the growth of their market share or the growth of the user-market itself by limiting user transactions by orders of magnitude. Ultimately, as Web 2.0 concepts permeate the wider global culture, this position becomes self-defeating - the creation of virtual ghettos.<br /><br />Mr. Jarvis understands that, in the long run, it's a road to nowhere.markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16283319657103608208noreply@blogger.com0