Monday, February 07, 2005
IS AMERICA READY FOR A BLACK, FEMALE, PRESIDENT ?
Dick Cheney, the most powerful Vice-President in history, has declared himself out of the run in 2008 when both the Democrats and Republicans will square off with nominees who are not incumbents.
The Republican frontrunner to beat is now Condoleeza Rice.
Rice who has steadily ascended the ranks of the foreign policy elite will, if her tenure as Secretary of State is successful, have the gravitas to make the run. If her tenure is capped by high-profile international success and if George W. Bush throws his weight behind a Rice candidacy then she may well prove unstoppable before potential opponents even line up at the gate. Rice would also neutralize the great gender-advantage the Democrats would accrue by nominating Hillary Clinton to run against some colorless and aging GOP white-guy, governor.
True, Rice has not signaled any interest in elective office but she is a Bush loyalist to the core and if both presidents Bush ask her, well then...
Run Condi, Run !
¶ 9:33 AM
Dick Cheney, the most powerful Vice-President in history, has declared himself out of the run in 2008 when both the Democrats and Republicans will square off with nominees who are not incumbents.
The Republican frontrunner to beat is now Condoleeza Rice.
Rice who has steadily ascended the ranks of the foreign policy elite will, if her tenure as Secretary of State is successful, have the gravitas to make the run. If her tenure is capped by high-profile international success and if George W. Bush throws his weight behind a Rice candidacy then she may well prove unstoppable before potential opponents even line up at the gate. Rice would also neutralize the great gender-advantage the Democrats would accrue by nominating Hillary Clinton to run against some colorless and aging GOP white-guy, governor.
True, Rice has not signaled any interest in elective office but she is a Bush loyalist to the core and if both presidents Bush ask her, well then...
Run Condi, Run !
¶ 9:33 AM
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I can't say I know a lot about the Republican Party, but I'm fairly sure it is conventional wisdom amongst the political establishment that they have a "southern strategy" that appeals most to working class white men. Running a black woman, great as it would be, does not seem like something that would be in their interest. I honestly don't see her winning in a Republican primary for that reason, as well as the fact that she has no experience running for office, which would be a problem in running for President. Also, if you remember, George W. Bush's campaign in South Carolina in 2000 ran ads against John McCain saying he had a black baby. I'm not saying the ads worked, but the very fact that they were used shows how white the Republican Party is. Even having her as the Vice President seems to be a stretch at this point.
The Republican frontrunner to beat is now Condoleeza Rice.Maybe not. The futures traders (who have actual money riding on this) see it this way:
McCain 18%
Giuiliani 17%
Frist 15%
Owens 10%
J. Bush 10%
Romney 7%
Rice 6%
Rice has many, many problems. Never run for elective office. No really relevant experience. Single. Black. Female. (this is starting to read like a personals ad). A long shot.
McCain 18%
Giuiliani 17%
Frist 15%
Owens 10%
J. Bush 10%
Romney 7%
Rice 6%
Rice has many, many problems. Never run for elective office. No really relevant experience. Single. Black. Female. (this is starting to read like a personals ad). A long shot.
My commentary on the furures picks provided by Dave:
McCain 18% ....Going to have bury the hatchet with Team Bush first. McCain has irritated a large number of non-Bush Republicans in the bargain.
Giuiliani 17%...Interesting. I like him but it is going to depend on what he does between now and then. 9-11 will be 7 years ago in 2008. His record on crime even older.
Frist 15%...I bring to your attention a) Bob Dole and b) Lyndon Johnson's attempts to run from Frist's job. Results...not pretty.
Owens 10%....Who ??
J. Bush 10%...Undersestimated percentage. If he wants the job, W will back him over Condi.
Romney 7%...Twice the prospects of his father.
Rice 6% Ah, we shall see. We shall see.
McCain 18% ....Going to have bury the hatchet with Team Bush first. McCain has irritated a large number of non-Bush Republicans in the bargain.
Giuiliani 17%...Interesting. I like him but it is going to depend on what he does between now and then. 9-11 will be 7 years ago in 2008. His record on crime even older.
Frist 15%...I bring to your attention a) Bob Dole and b) Lyndon Johnson's attempts to run from Frist's job. Results...not pretty.
Owens 10%....Who ??
J. Bush 10%...Undersestimated percentage. If he wants the job, W will back him over Condi.
Romney 7%...Twice the prospects of his father.
Rice 6% Ah, we shall see. We shall see.
I question that the working class white men of the south would balk at voting for Condi. The few men that I know of this profile seem to judge her by her character. They like her conservative values and would vote for her any day over most of the candidates that the Dems put to field this last election.
Condi does have to prove herself as a leader and visionary - something that has not revealed itself yet. Her image is that of a very smart and loyal follower. It would also depend on the history leading into 2008. If we continue to enjoy success (such as the Iraqi election) then people will want more of the same - and Condi will be the one to deliver. If we endure another horrible attack leading into 2008 then someone like Zell Miller will appeal to us. If we suffer terrible foreign policy defeats (China and Iran making ugly noises) then we will be looking for a diplomat (Colin Powell?).
I am not a pundit - just giving you my gut instinct.
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Condi does have to prove herself as a leader and visionary - something that has not revealed itself yet. Her image is that of a very smart and loyal follower. It would also depend on the history leading into 2008. If we continue to enjoy success (such as the Iraqi election) then people will want more of the same - and Condi will be the one to deliver. If we endure another horrible attack leading into 2008 then someone like Zell Miller will appeal to us. If we suffer terrible foreign policy defeats (China and Iran making ugly noises) then we will be looking for a diplomat (Colin Powell?).
I am not a pundit - just giving you my gut instinct.
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