ZenPundit
Saturday, May 08, 2004
 
OPERATION OSIRAK II ?

Reportedly, a major topic of the recent meeting between israeli PM Ariel Sharon and President Bush was an upcoming IDF raid to hit suspect Iranian nuclear sites that may be capable of producing a nuclear bomb in as little as one year. Iranian foot-dragging in talks with the IAEA and other acts of diplomatic intransigence by Teheran combined with an unwillingness of IAEA iadministrators to bring the question of Iranian misdeeds to the frontburner may increase the likelihood of a second Osirak type raid by Israel.

I've held out hope for diplomatic and economic pressure succeeding in curtailing Iraninan nuclear proliferation as that country is far more plugged in to the world economy than North Korea or Iraq under UN sanctions. The wily hardline Mullahs, especially Rafsanjani, may be more interested in running out the clock than in reaching a settlement that keeps Iran out of the Nuclear Club. In such circumstances, the short and medium term fall-out would be worth the price of setting Iran's program back by a decade.
 
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