Thursday, September 30, 2004
A COALITION OF THE MOON - WHOM DO WE HAVE TO OUTMANUVER AND ISOLATE ?
In a previous post on the war T.M. Lutas raised the following issue about the prosecution of the war and party politics in the comments:
"One of our greatest challenges is internal. The neo-McGovernites are so powerful in the Democrat party that it is constantly wedged between the responsible and the irresponsible. For us to win the GWOT, we need to come up with not only a conservative "sun" coalition to fight this war but also a "moon" coalition that will not completely bollix the process in the inevitable event of a need to replace a corrupt/incompetent Republican here and there. The "one-and-a-half" party system with a dominant "sun" party and a lesser "moon" party is a long-term feature of US politics. We've got the "sun" working out ok. It's the moon that really has me worried."
Me too. What kind of numbers are we talking about in the Democratic Party and among Democratic-leaning moderate independents ? Dick Morris cited a poll in his most recent column that gives us a clue. Here is the breakdown in regards to Iraq:
"The latest poll data from Scott Rasmussen underscores Kerry's dilemma. Should we commit more military force, the same amount or less to Iraq? Of Kerry's voters, 40 percent want less force, 15 percent want the same — and 28 percent want more. Are the people of Iraq better off than under Saddam? A quarter (26 percent) of Kerry's voters say yes; 34 percent say they're worse off, and 24 percent say it is about the same. "
From this we can gague approximately a third of Democratic voters are hard-core adherents to the blame-America first critique that has been propagated since the Vietnam war by the then emerging and now graying New Left . We can add a few percentage points in terms of population to account for the crackpot elements on the Left who vote Green or for a minor Socialist party but since these people see the two major parties as one corporate-fascist monocracy, their votes are usually wasted in the final analysis, except to the extent that they indirectly help elect Republicans. The main point is that this is the voting bloc, the irresponsible Left, that we need to marginalize and isolate the way the Henry Wallace Left was marginalized and discredited in the 1948 election.
Destroying the political viability of the Antiwar/Crit/Po-mo/Progressive/Chomskyian faction so that they no longer exercise a stranglehold over the Democratic Party will allow the the formation of a long-term vital center on the War on Terror. The Democratic Party will then, like the GOP from 1946-1980, become the " Moon Party" of T.M. Lutas - they will still elect presidents and occasionally Congressional majorities as well but they will always be intellectually in orbit around the ideas of the Sun Party. National Security will not be rattled when the executive branch changes parties and prosecution of the war will take on a reliable consistency, much like American foreign policy in the heydey of the Cold War.
¶ 9:54 AM
In a previous post on the war T.M. Lutas raised the following issue about the prosecution of the war and party politics in the comments:
"One of our greatest challenges is internal. The neo-McGovernites are so powerful in the Democrat party that it is constantly wedged between the responsible and the irresponsible. For us to win the GWOT, we need to come up with not only a conservative "sun" coalition to fight this war but also a "moon" coalition that will not completely bollix the process in the inevitable event of a need to replace a corrupt/incompetent Republican here and there. The "one-and-a-half" party system with a dominant "sun" party and a lesser "moon" party is a long-term feature of US politics. We've got the "sun" working out ok. It's the moon that really has me worried."
Me too. What kind of numbers are we talking about in the Democratic Party and among Democratic-leaning moderate independents ? Dick Morris cited a poll in his most recent column that gives us a clue. Here is the breakdown in regards to Iraq:
"The latest poll data from Scott Rasmussen underscores Kerry's dilemma. Should we commit more military force, the same amount or less to Iraq? Of Kerry's voters, 40 percent want less force, 15 percent want the same — and 28 percent want more. Are the people of Iraq better off than under Saddam? A quarter (26 percent) of Kerry's voters say yes; 34 percent say they're worse off, and 24 percent say it is about the same. "
From this we can gague approximately a third of Democratic voters are hard-core adherents to the blame-America first critique that has been propagated since the Vietnam war by the then emerging and now graying New Left . We can add a few percentage points in terms of population to account for the crackpot elements on the Left who vote Green or for a minor Socialist party but since these people see the two major parties as one corporate-fascist monocracy, their votes are usually wasted in the final analysis, except to the extent that they indirectly help elect Republicans. The main point is that this is the voting bloc, the irresponsible Left, that we need to marginalize and isolate the way the Henry Wallace Left was marginalized and discredited in the 1948 election.
Destroying the political viability of the Antiwar/Crit/Po-mo/Progressive/Chomskyian faction so that they no longer exercise a stranglehold over the Democratic Party will allow the the formation of a long-term vital center on the War on Terror. The Democratic Party will then, like the GOP from 1946-1980, become the " Moon Party" of T.M. Lutas - they will still elect presidents and occasionally Congressional majorities as well but they will always be intellectually in orbit around the ideas of the Sun Party. National Security will not be rattled when the executive branch changes parties and prosecution of the war will take on a reliable consistency, much like American foreign policy in the heydey of the Cold War.
¶ 9:54 AM
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There are a number of factors that suggest that things will not develop as you suggest. First, check the results of the Democratic presidential primaries. The DLC was repudiated. Within the Party that's the group most marginalized and likely to be purged—not the group you're hoping for. Second, consider the results of the upcoming election. If Kerry wins, that will leave the Old Guard Left firmly in charge of the party. The group you're talking about is part of their base. If Kerry loses, it sets the stage for a replay of the McGovernite purges of the early 70's. They'll purge the remnants of the Scoop Jackson/Sam Nunn Democrats for reasons of doctrinal purity along with the DLC and leave the Deaniacs in charge.
As I see it the situation does not so much resemble the reform of the Republican Party that took place after the loss of Gerald Ford but the origins of the Republican Party following the collapse of the Whigs. These were events that precipiated a bloody civil war, IIRC.
As I see it the situation does not so much resemble the reform of the Republican Party that took place after the loss of Gerald Ford but the origins of the Republican Party following the collapse of the Whigs. These were events that precipiated a bloody civil war, IIRC.
My above post reflects a hopeful outcome. Second best would be an exodus from the Democratic Party of responsibele Democrats as the nuts discredit themselves and self-destruct politically.
Muddling through is another possible outcome as is the eventuality that those who have a socialist-collectivist-crit theory-we are the vanguard attitude move from democratic (small d) politics to the politics of subversion and violence. It's a short step from sympathizing with terrorists to becoming one - heck - former, unrepentant, Weathermen like Bill Ayers are " respectable" academic and literary figures.
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Muddling through is another possible outcome as is the eventuality that those who have a socialist-collectivist-crit theory-we are the vanguard attitude move from democratic (small d) politics to the politics of subversion and violence. It's a short step from sympathizing with terrorists to becoming one - heck - former, unrepentant, Weathermen like Bill Ayers are " respectable" academic and literary figures.
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