Tuesday, September 21, 2004

The " Republican Underground" of the Foreign Service, the folks at Diplomad. A taste of Diplomadic analysis from a post entitled " Bush in his Second Term: How Long Until He Is Nixoned?" :

"The Diplomads always have believed that President Bush would be re-elected (despite the wishes of most of our State colleagues). To cite Senator Trent Lott's words, Americans are not going to elect a "French-speaking socialist from Boston." Given the pronounced liberal bias in most polling, we have never bought polls showing Kerry in front. Bush probably has had a lead all along, somewhere in the 3-5% range, and now likely has bumped that up to a 6-8% lead among actual voters. Come election day, we expect him to win with an edge in the 4-6% range, and to take a sizable electoral college majority (300+ EVs).Charles Krauthammer recently wrote, "What if Bush is re-elected? If they lose to him again, Democrats will need more than just consolation. They'll need therapy."

The Good Doctor K is almost certainly correct -- he is rarely wrong -- that the rage of the left will be something to see when George Bush wins re-election. We will see a horrific rage as the realization sinks in among the lefties that Soros wasted his millions; that Rather committed public suicide for nothing; that having Michael Moore on your side is even worse than having the French; and that the NY Times, CBS, CNN, NPR, et al, no longer control the setting of the national agenda. We will see fingers-pointed and hear blame-assigned, e.g., "If Kerry hadn't been a bad candidate"; "If only he had responded earlier to the Swift Boat liars"; "If only he had run a better campaign"; "If only he had gotten out the message more clearly"; "If only we had gotten better forgeries"; "If only there hadn't been those damn pajama bloggers"; "If only we hadn't had those hurricanes"; and "If" and "If" and so on and on.

But the rage will not remain inwardly directed. The American left repeatedly has demonstrated an inability to reflect deeply on the "root causes" of its own failings. It simply cannot accept that Americans are conservative; they do not want their country to become like Europe. The left only reluctantly and sporadically realizes that it can only win a national election if it hides its true agenda (we bow down before Clinton the Master.) Kerry has tried half-heartedly to do just that: the mock heroics at the DNC; the "strong America" talk. One sees the outsourced Kerry (he grew up overseas) portraying himself as a life-long hunter and gun-owner, when, in fact, he has consistently supported extreme gun control measures; we see him trying to trade on his status as "war hero," when in fact he has made a whole career out of being anti-military.

It doesn't take much to see that once it gets up from the floor, finishes dusting itself off after November 2, the left will dedicate its energies to destroying Bush and his second term. They will try to "Nixon" him just as they tried to "Nixon" Reagan and, of course, managed to "Nixon" Nixon. And as, to be fair, the Republicans foolishly tried to "Nixon" Clinton over a stupid extra-marital affair.

If Bush wins by a margin considerably more narrow than we have stated above, the "Nixoning" will begin almost immediately,e.g., calls for recounts, recourse to courts. If he wins by the above margin or greater, the "Nixoning" will begin later. Either way it will begin. It will involve a relentless effort by the Democratic Party and its allies in the press, the law professions, the unions, and hordes of NGOs putting out a steady drumbeat of dire messages on the environment, civil and human rights, and wealth distribution. Any sleaziness, reverse, or error, no matter how minor, any misstatement of policy, or violation of some obscure statute, will bring banner headlines, and calls for resignations, investigations, and impeachment.

Presidential second terms are traditionally marked by a loss of momentum and onset of decay. The "second string" often gets key appointments. The President's political leverage steadily declines as the second term wears on. The GOP will enter a period of disorganization as it seeks its next batch of leaders. All that will work against Bush as the left tries to "Nixon" him. In his favor, and the biggest defense he will have against being "Nixoned" is the fact, quite simply, that he is not Nixon; Bush is an honest man, apparently without the psychological quirks and deceitfulness that so bedeviled the otherwise brilliant Nixon. It is highly unlikely that Bush would get involved in something as sordid as the Watergate break-in and cover-up. He will also have working for him that the liberal MSM no longer wields the power and credibility of years of old. He will have allies in the internet and on talk radio which will "Fisk" the MSM attacks and launch counterattacks. All that said, it will be a prolonged battle with the left seeking, ideally, to drive Bush from power or so cripple him that by 2008 Americans are eager for a change.

The "Nixoning" of Nixon was a disaster for America and for freedom around the world. It cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese, Laotians and Cambodians, encouraged the Soviets to pick up the tempo of their imperialist adventures, and led to the election of the worst American President of the 20th century, Jimmy Carter. Under Carter, of course, the retreat of American power around the world produced untold suffering as dictatorial regimes became emboldened. Above all, the destitution of Nixon convinced leftist and other anti-American thugs around the world that America could be defeated at home.

The stakes over the next four years are no less. "
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