Thursday, November 04, 2004
THE ANGLOSPHERE AND THE NEW CORE: A COALITION OF THE ABLE ?
Dr. Barnett, after a weekend mishap or two, had an interesting post on his blog on how the re-election of President Bush combined with the internal political and economic situation of the New Core giants - Russia, China and India - could reshape the international security structure.
"Getting over the election is equally easy. Would have supported President Kerry like crazy in moving this country ahead on this global war on terror, but will do the same for President Bush. The next four years will be crucial for the Core and the continued spread and health of the global economy. China will be in an entirely new era at the end of the next four years, as will both India and Russia. Not surprisingly, basically all New Core powers are fairly relieved with another four years of Bush, because they'd rather have the U.S. steady while so much is going on—on their end. Plus, Bush seems committed to both fighting global terror and growing the global economy, and those are numbers 2 and 1—respectively—for the New Core
The simplest answer on this election comes from Todd Purdum, one of the Times' best political analysts: shared social values trumped mistakes in the steering of the global war on terror. In effect, the majority of Americans want America to remember some key things about itself as it goes about trying to reshape the global security environment in response to the new challenges revealed by 9/11. In many ways, this election reminds me of the backward-glancing social conservatism of China's 4th generation of leaders, the Congress Party's return to power in India, and Putin's tough line on capitalism run amok in Russia. Like these three leaderships, the Republicans right now are doing a better job of listening to the rural heartland, which still counts for plenty in all of these four powers. And what they are saying is what I have often said: no matter how long the train nor how fast it's moving, the engine cannot go any faster than the caboose.
China wants to integrate rapidly with the outside world and modernize its economy, but guess what? It can't leave the rural poor behind. Ditto for India's IT-driven economy. Ditto for Russia's rapidly polarizing social scene where cities leap ahead and the villages tend to get left behind. In America, which is so much further along in its development, the matter is as much about values as economics. In effect, the rural heartland says to the far more integrated and outwardly-connected big coastal urban areas: you can run ahead in your "sophisticated" view of the world and how it works, but election-wise, you won't be getting out too far ahead of what constitutes heartland values. ....
....Moreover, not lost in all this change is a new sense that old enemies need be old enemies no longer. This is especially true of China, which the public increasingly understands shares hugely overlapping strategic economic—and therefore security—interests in any global war on terror. "
The nice thing about the situation that Dr. Barnett is pointing toward - emphasized today by Putin's warm public embrace of Bush's reelection- is that it meshes nicely with a complementary emerging Old Core trend - the tightening of the military-security relationships within the Anglosphere to become an alliance within the Western alliance. Both Britain and Australia, the latter reconfirming it's traditional solidarity with the United states by the strong re-election of Prime Minister John Howard, are now in a posture of militarily active wartime allies.
This fusion of the Anglosphere as a globally dynamic entity was the clarion call of Robert Conquest, the noted scholar of Stalin's Great Terror, who opined on the necessity several years ago in his Reflections on a Ravaged Century. Exigencies of the Islamist global insurgency from 9/11 to Bali to Iraq are rapidly bringing Conquest's vision to fruition but the combination of the Anglosphere tied to the New Core in a grand alliance is far, far superior.
The New Core brings over a third of humanity and at least a fifth of the world's land mass ruled by governments committed to modernity and globalization that are willing to defend themselves with hard power without apology. The participation in strategic decisions by India and China avoidwould the political charge of " American empire", "West against the Rest" and " White Imperialism". Even if such a combination is only implicit, the sheer weight of such an alliance will peel off other European Old Core states away from the Franco-German axis that is championing anti-Americanism and injecting chaos producing, disconnecting, Kantian rule-set values into a decidedly a non-Kantian world.
It's a strategic Coalition of the Able that could achieve victory over Islamist Terror and a shrink the Gap in the 21st Century.
¶ 7:45 PM
Dr. Barnett, after a weekend mishap or two, had an interesting post on his blog on how the re-election of President Bush combined with the internal political and economic situation of the New Core giants - Russia, China and India - could reshape the international security structure.
"Getting over the election is equally easy. Would have supported President Kerry like crazy in moving this country ahead on this global war on terror, but will do the same for President Bush. The next four years will be crucial for the Core and the continued spread and health of the global economy. China will be in an entirely new era at the end of the next four years, as will both India and Russia. Not surprisingly, basically all New Core powers are fairly relieved with another four years of Bush, because they'd rather have the U.S. steady while so much is going on—on their end. Plus, Bush seems committed to both fighting global terror and growing the global economy, and those are numbers 2 and 1—respectively—for the New Core
The simplest answer on this election comes from Todd Purdum, one of the Times' best political analysts: shared social values trumped mistakes in the steering of the global war on terror. In effect, the majority of Americans want America to remember some key things about itself as it goes about trying to reshape the global security environment in response to the new challenges revealed by 9/11. In many ways, this election reminds me of the backward-glancing social conservatism of China's 4th generation of leaders, the Congress Party's return to power in India, and Putin's tough line on capitalism run amok in Russia. Like these three leaderships, the Republicans right now are doing a better job of listening to the rural heartland, which still counts for plenty in all of these four powers. And what they are saying is what I have often said: no matter how long the train nor how fast it's moving, the engine cannot go any faster than the caboose.
China wants to integrate rapidly with the outside world and modernize its economy, but guess what? It can't leave the rural poor behind. Ditto for India's IT-driven economy. Ditto for Russia's rapidly polarizing social scene where cities leap ahead and the villages tend to get left behind. In America, which is so much further along in its development, the matter is as much about values as economics. In effect, the rural heartland says to the far more integrated and outwardly-connected big coastal urban areas: you can run ahead in your "sophisticated" view of the world and how it works, but election-wise, you won't be getting out too far ahead of what constitutes heartland values. ....
....Moreover, not lost in all this change is a new sense that old enemies need be old enemies no longer. This is especially true of China, which the public increasingly understands shares hugely overlapping strategic economic—and therefore security—interests in any global war on terror. "
The nice thing about the situation that Dr. Barnett is pointing toward - emphasized today by Putin's warm public embrace of Bush's reelection- is that it meshes nicely with a complementary emerging Old Core trend - the tightening of the military-security relationships within the Anglosphere to become an alliance within the Western alliance. Both Britain and Australia, the latter reconfirming it's traditional solidarity with the United states by the strong re-election of Prime Minister John Howard, are now in a posture of militarily active wartime allies.
This fusion of the Anglosphere as a globally dynamic entity was the clarion call of Robert Conquest, the noted scholar of Stalin's Great Terror, who opined on the necessity several years ago in his Reflections on a Ravaged Century. Exigencies of the Islamist global insurgency from 9/11 to Bali to Iraq are rapidly bringing Conquest's vision to fruition but the combination of the Anglosphere tied to the New Core in a grand alliance is far, far superior.
The New Core brings over a third of humanity and at least a fifth of the world's land mass ruled by governments committed to modernity and globalization that are willing to defend themselves with hard power without apology. The participation in strategic decisions by India and China avoidwould the political charge of " American empire", "West against the Rest" and " White Imperialism". Even if such a combination is only implicit, the sheer weight of such an alliance will peel off other European Old Core states away from the Franco-German axis that is championing anti-Americanism and injecting chaos producing, disconnecting, Kantian rule-set values into a decidedly a non-Kantian world.
It's a strategic Coalition of the Able that could achieve victory over Islamist Terror and a shrink the Gap in the 21st Century.
¶ 7:45 PM
