Sunday, December 12, 2004
THE BUNGLED WET AFFAIR IN UKRAINE
Unofficial but probable victor in the disputed Ukrainian Presidential election, Viktor Yuschenko, has called for a probe into his mysterious poisoning that Austrian doctors attribuute to Dioxin. The Kuchma regime's handpicked candidate, Viktor Yanukovych, had this sputtering response:
"There is "no logic in such an accusation," The Associated Press quoted Yanukovych's campaign manager, Taras Chornovyl, as saying."
Hardly. Yanukovych represents not only the more Russified eastern Ukraine but the ex-KGB, russian mafiya chieftains who rule the dilapidated industrial cities with iron fists. In addition to self-interested corruption, this group also wallows in reactionary nostalgia for the Soviet Union's neo-Stalinist days of the late Brezhnev period. In a particularly goofy example, Ludmilla Yanukovych had this to say regarding the anti-regime, democratic protests:
"Dear friends, I'm fresh from Kyiv, I can tell you what's going on there. It's simply an orange orgy there! So, there's rows and rows of felt boots — all of it of American make! See! And mountains of orange oranges. And the background is 'Orange sea, orange sky ...' [a line from a popular kids song]
"Gosh! It's just ... It's a nightmare! And look here guys: those oranges ain't just any oranges — they're loaded. People take an orange, eat it — and take another one. See! And the hand keeps reaching, keeps reaching for it. I was on my way here, there was news. They said — people in the square are getting poisoned, on a mass scale. Frequent hospitalizations. They bring people in with meningitis! What have we come to? And they keep standing, keep standing! Eyes simply glazed over! Just like that!"
( Hat tip for this Sovietesque nonsense goes to Geitner Simmons)
The primary question now is whether an honest investigation, which will only occur if Yushchenko wins the special election, will lead to the door of Yanukovych, Kuchma or Russian President Vladmir Putin.
The clumsiness of the poisoning would tend to implicate the Yanukovych campaign, perhaps with assistance from the security services of the Kuchma regime. The former KGB, most of whose assets were inherited by the Russian Federation, pioneered " Black Chamber " research for stealthy assassinations and quite simply have far more efficient an less traceable toxins at their disposal. The diplomatic price of Russian involvement in a bungled assassination of a Ukranian presidential candidate are extremely high - particularly when simply stealing the election or tossing Yushchenko in jail on trumped up charges ( Putin's personal M.O.) have fewer spillover costs. I'm not ruling it out but I think the SVR would be more deft ( perhaps I'm wrong and the SVR-FSB are in the same sorry state as the Russian Army).
The net effect will probably be a resounding election victory by Yushchenko who, if he rules with any sense of magnaminity, will firmly and irrevocably put Ukraine on a path to integration with the Core, pretty much ending any Russian hopes for a neo-Soviet imperial sphere. Without the prize that is Ukraine such dreams are a fantasy and Russia's best course of action would to go the route of integration as well - ending a thousand years of Russian ambiguity of standing between the Asiatic and Western worlds.
¶ 7:21 AM
Unofficial but probable victor in the disputed Ukrainian Presidential election, Viktor Yuschenko, has called for a probe into his mysterious poisoning that Austrian doctors attribuute to Dioxin. The Kuchma regime's handpicked candidate, Viktor Yanukovych, had this sputtering response:
"There is "no logic in such an accusation," The Associated Press quoted Yanukovych's campaign manager, Taras Chornovyl, as saying."
Hardly. Yanukovych represents not only the more Russified eastern Ukraine but the ex-KGB, russian mafiya chieftains who rule the dilapidated industrial cities with iron fists. In addition to self-interested corruption, this group also wallows in reactionary nostalgia for the Soviet Union's neo-Stalinist days of the late Brezhnev period. In a particularly goofy example, Ludmilla Yanukovych had this to say regarding the anti-regime, democratic protests:
"Dear friends, I'm fresh from Kyiv, I can tell you what's going on there. It's simply an orange orgy there! So, there's rows and rows of felt boots — all of it of American make! See! And mountains of orange oranges. And the background is 'Orange sea, orange sky ...' [a line from a popular kids song]
"Gosh! It's just ... It's a nightmare! And look here guys: those oranges ain't just any oranges — they're loaded. People take an orange, eat it — and take another one. See! And the hand keeps reaching, keeps reaching for it. I was on my way here, there was news. They said — people in the square are getting poisoned, on a mass scale. Frequent hospitalizations. They bring people in with meningitis! What have we come to? And they keep standing, keep standing! Eyes simply glazed over! Just like that!"
( Hat tip for this Sovietesque nonsense goes to Geitner Simmons)
The primary question now is whether an honest investigation, which will only occur if Yushchenko wins the special election, will lead to the door of Yanukovych, Kuchma or Russian President Vladmir Putin.
The clumsiness of the poisoning would tend to implicate the Yanukovych campaign, perhaps with assistance from the security services of the Kuchma regime. The former KGB, most of whose assets were inherited by the Russian Federation, pioneered " Black Chamber " research for stealthy assassinations and quite simply have far more efficient an less traceable toxins at their disposal. The diplomatic price of Russian involvement in a bungled assassination of a Ukranian presidential candidate are extremely high - particularly when simply stealing the election or tossing Yushchenko in jail on trumped up charges ( Putin's personal M.O.) have fewer spillover costs. I'm not ruling it out but I think the SVR would be more deft ( perhaps I'm wrong and the SVR-FSB are in the same sorry state as the Russian Army).
The net effect will probably be a resounding election victory by Yushchenko who, if he rules with any sense of magnaminity, will firmly and irrevocably put Ukraine on a path to integration with the Core, pretty much ending any Russian hopes for a neo-Soviet imperial sphere. Without the prize that is Ukraine such dreams are a fantasy and Russia's best course of action would to go the route of integration as well - ending a thousand years of Russian ambiguity of standing between the Asiatic and Western worlds.
¶ 7:21 AM
