ZenPundit
Monday, January 03, 2005
 
THE FUTURE OF ANDREW

His predictions for 2005

Andrew is a lot more optimistic on Iran. While I put my faith in the stupidity of the clerical regime hardliners ( Khameini really isn't that bright - he's the Konstantin Chernenko of Khomeinist Islamism - but with better health) Andrew prefers to vest his confidence in their ability to annoy the Iranian people.

"Iran- The US will buy off the Iranians, in a sense. Giving Tehran security guarantees and offering to lift sanctions, the Bush administration will convince the Iranians to accept IAEA monitoring of their nuclear program, with the understanding that the Iranians could still pursue a program for "peaceful purposes". With the US threat diminished inside Iran, the legitimacy of the mullahs will be the primary grievance of Iranians, setting in motion events that will eventually culminate in another revolution. This will mark a shift in Us policy towards Iran, instead of isolating the US will choose to open up Iran in efforts to weaken the regime."

ADDENDUM: JB SEES THE RITING ON THE WALL FOR ACADEMIC PROGNOSTICATIONS

A nice summative review with commentary
 
Comments:
i'm still trying to figure out whether the chronicle picked the worst of the worst or whether that was meant as a serious survey of what's out there. but i guess that's sort of a long-term problem with the source in the first place.
 
You now, the Chernenko comment was priceless. He is more handsome one has to admit. I guess the lack of massive Vodka consumption.......

But I agree with Andrew with caution.

Collounsbury
 
Thank you Col. The half-life of revolutions seems to have shrunk in the last century or so. Iran seems worn out already after just 25 years.

re: Vodka - he irritating thing about Islamism is that when sincerely professed we then have enemies who eschew a number of helpful vices. However, the Iranian clergy still seem to have a weakness for personal and nepotistic greed.

I hope that you and Andrew are correct Col - I see a group of obscurantist loons who will spitefully kill any good deal that the sane portion of the Iranian government can cut with the IAEA or the US. The Bush administration survives easily without Iran as an enemy - I'm not sure Khameini's clique can cling to power for long without the specter of the great Satan.
 
Post a Comment

<< Home
Zenpundit - a NEWSMAGAZINE and JOURNAL of scholarly opinion.

My Photo
Name:
Location: Chicago, United States

" The great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances as though they were realities" -- Machiavelli

Determined Designs Web Solutions Lijit Search
ARCHIVES
02/01/2003 - 03/01/2003 / 03/01/2003 - 04/01/2003 / 04/01/2003 - 05/01/2003 / 05/01/2003 - 06/01/2003 / 06/01/2003 - 07/01/2003 / 07/01/2003 - 08/01/2003 / 08/01/2003 - 09/01/2003 / 09/01/2003 - 10/01/2003 / 10/01/2003 - 11/01/2003 / 11/01/2003 - 12/01/2003 / 12/01/2003 - 01/01/2004 / 01/01/2004 - 02/01/2004 / 02/01/2004 - 03/01/2004 / 03/01/2004 - 04/01/2004 / 04/01/2004 - 05/01/2004 / 05/01/2004 - 06/01/2004 / 06/01/2004 - 07/01/2004 / 07/01/2004 - 08/01/2004 / 08/01/2004 - 09/01/2004 / 09/01/2004 - 10/01/2004 / 10/01/2004 - 11/01/2004 / 11/01/2004 - 12/01/2004 / 12/01/2004 - 01/01/2005 / 01/01/2005 - 02/01/2005 / 02/01/2005 - 03/01/2005 / 03/01/2005 - 04/01/2005 / 04/01/2005 - 05/01/2005 / 05/01/2005 - 06/01/2005 / 06/01/2005 - 07/01/2005 / 07/01/2005 - 08/01/2005 / 08/01/2005 - 09/01/2005 / 09/01/2005 - 10/01/2005 / 10/01/2005 - 11/01/2005 / 11/01/2005 - 12/01/2005 / 12/01/2005 - 01/01/2006 / 01/01/2006 - 02/01/2006 / 02/01/2006 - 03/01/2006 / 03/01/2006 - 04/01/2006 / 04/01/2006 - 05/01/2006 / 05/01/2006 - 06/01/2006 / 06/01/2006 - 07/01/2006 / 07/01/2006 - 08/01/2006 / 08/01/2006 - 09/01/2006 / 09/01/2006 - 10/01/2006 / 10/01/2006 - 11/01/2006 / 11/01/2006 - 12/01/2006 / 12/01/2006 - 01/01/2007 / 01/01/2007 - 02/01/2007 / 02/01/2007 - 03/01/2007 / 03/01/2007 - 04/01/2007 / 04/01/2007 - 05/01/2007 / 05/01/2007 - 06/01/2007 / 06/01/2007 - 07/01/2007 / 07/01/2007 - 08/01/2007 / 08/01/2007 - 09/01/2007 / 09/01/2007 - 10/01/2007 / 10/01/2007 - 11/01/2007 / 11/01/2007 - 12/01/2007 /



follow zenpundit at http://twitter.com
This plugin requires Adobe Flash 9.
Get this widget!
Sphere Featured Blogs Powered by Blogger StatisfyZenpundit

Site Feed Who Links Here
Buzztracker daily image Blogroll Me!