THE FUTURE OF ANDREW
His predictions for 2005
Andrew is a lot more optimistic on Iran. While I put my faith in the stupidity of the clerical regime hardliners ( Khameini really isn't that bright - he's the Konstantin Chernenko of Khomeinist Islamism - but with better health) Andrew prefers to vest his confidence in their ability to annoy the Iranian people.
"Iran- The US will buy off the Iranians, in a sense. Giving Tehran security guarantees and offering to lift sanctions, the Bush administration will convince the Iranians to accept IAEA monitoring of their nuclear program, with the understanding that the Iranians could still pursue a program for "peaceful purposes". With the US threat diminished inside Iran, the legitimacy of the mullahs will be the primary grievance of Iranians, setting in motion events that will eventually culminate in another revolution. This will mark a shift in Us policy towards Iran, instead of isolating the US will choose to open up Iran in efforts to weaken the regime."
ADDENDUM: JB SEES THE RITING ON THE WALL FOR ACADEMIC PROGNOSTICATIONS
A nice summative review with commentary