ZenPundit
Monday, September 26, 2005
 
RAND ON CHINA'S AYSMMETRIC MILITARY STRATEGY

This PDF file should be of particular interest to Simon and Eddie.

Analysts from RAND Corporation outlined information distilled from Chinese doctrinal writings on asymmetric warfare in Congressional testimony, suggesting that the PLA leadership envisions a war with Taiwan being " winnable" and "containable". The guiding strategic principles are:

The objective is to fight a brief, lightning-fast, local limited war which China presumes America will subsequently decline to escalate further. Amusingly, since these doctrinal writings suggest hitting PACOM assets even before striking Taiwan itself to achieve this political effect, RAND's analyst notes:

" It does not need to be pointed out to this panel that the last time such a strategy was attempted in the Pacific the ultimate results were not altogether favorable to the country that tried it "

But he also noted the obvious historical example had been left out of these doctrinal writings. From my perspective, this analysis tells us several things about Chinese strategic thinking:

First that Chinese generals like generals the world over tend to like plans better if they ignore inconvenient realities - like China's dearth of airlift and sealift capabilities to carry out a more difficult cross-channel invasion than D-Day. Or the reaction of the American public to a sneak attack on the U.S. Navy. Or Taiwan's ability to repel an invasion. Or...or....or....

Secondly, the generals are politically obligated by the CCP leadership to come up with something that has a hope of achieving reunification of Taiwan on Chinese terms. Considering this whole strategy is premised on " We can't win a major with the United States but here's how we'll risk one anyway" the overriding importance to China's rulers of preventing formal Taiwanese independence should be obvious. It's not just a vital interest but the paramount one.

Third, the Chinese are not stupid. If we ( from their viewpoint) permit Taiwan to back Beijing into a corner they will strike first and most likely it is going to hurt. They are well aware of our systemic weaknesses and the tendency we have to neglect the unglamorous basics or build sufficient redundancy into our critical systems to weather a crisis. Moreover, they aren't the only people who've noticed.

The first strategic reality that needs to be understood is that the entire globe is an asymmetric position relative to the United States and that other nations will act accordingly. This is why we need an " Asian NATO" - there are too many potential conflicts in Asia between great regional powers where the United States cannot help but be dragged in if war breaks out. We need to cool these incipient rivalries down before they acquire irreversible momentum.

POSTSCRIPT:

Eddie too has been mulling over China.

 
Comments:
...and an Asian "NATO" would look like what? We already have agreements with Japan, South Korea and Australia. Seems to me the whole problem can be solved with a nuclear Taiwan. China has, to varying degrees, helped Pakistan and North Korea get nuclear weapons; both of which pose a significant risk to the U.S. We should "allow" Taiwan to go nuclear....heck, it is not a threat to China.
It is scary if the Chinese think that they could contain the results of an attack on the US Navy.

Barnabus
 
It's very scary. Hard to tell if the PLA generals genuinely believe that idiocy or are constrained by internal Chinese politics from saying otherwise.

Admiral Yamamoto knew full well that Pearl Harbor would be a strategic disaster for Imperial Japan yet planned and carried it out regardless.
 
I wonder, long-term, which is more dangerous to stability in Asia; excessive Chinese nationalism (that is continually harnessed by the regime to keep attention off of problems at home) or the tyranny of the few (who become increasingly detached from reality, as those pondering a sneak attack on the US navy have to be).

A new piece about Admiral Fallon, the PACOM procounsul, is available here;
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050925/OPINION03/509250333/1110/OPINION
he's wisely pressing Taiwan to get serious about defensive weapons. Good for them, great for us.
 
There is a very simple solution for the PRC to win. It can legalize the KMT on the mainland in exchange for peaceful unification with Taiwan.
The KMT mandarins gain enormous power in such an arrangement, the PRC becomes a multi-party democracy with the CCP losing (sending?) a third of its activists to the KMT, and the US has a huge hole shot into the intellectual framework it has for dealing with the PRC.

With recent estimates being that the PRC has 50%-59% of its economy in the private sector, what, specifically, differentiates the PRC at that point from Egypt? Is it Egypts lower level of economic importance and political freedom?

The PRC could gain everything at the next KMT government without firing a shot. They have already declared that they are no longer at war with the KMT.

Besides our armed forces, our State Department needs to be prepared for the eventuality that we get what our official policy actually seeks, peaceful reunification of the PRC and the ROC.
 
Hey TM

I could easily live with that scenario ( ending the CCP monopoly of power )- you would not be losing a democratic Taiwan but gaining a democratizing China. There's no way any duopoly could be long maintained - new civil society groups would worm there way into the cracks between the KMT and the CCP almost immediately.

In the interim, Taiwan needs to look to its own defenses and not go the European route in terms of defense policy. To be aggressive and unarmed is exceedingly unwise.
 
Hi Barnabus,

An Asian NATO would be - IMHO - the US, Japan, China, India, Australia, New Zealand, Russia and South Korea. For starters. Membership can be dangled as an incentive for states like Pakistan and Indonesia to reform.

The purpose would be less to defend against attack than to make it exceedingly difficult for member states to attack one another - much the way NATO members prevented Greece and Turkey from going to war on numerous occasions
 
The duopoly of power in the US has been maintained for quite a long while without much in the way of violence or even underhanded tactics. You can write a system up that only has two major parties.

The KMT would likely be majority staffed by CCP transplants. Think about it. Taiwan is small, the CCP is big, and the KMT would have to cover all that territory somehow. The pervading cynicism of *any* late cycle totalitarian state means that they're going to be very hard up for cadre. The CCP already is. So where will they get their ground troops? From the CCP, of course.
 
"Hi there, I just came across your blog about ad free hosting web and wanted to drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with the information you have posted here. I also have a web site related to ad free hosting web so I know what I am talking about when I say your site is top-notch! Keep up the great work, you are providing a great resource on the Internet here!"
 
Post a Comment

<< Home
Zenpundit - a NEWSMAGAZINE and JOURNAL of scholarly opinion.

My Photo
Name:
Location: Chicago, United States

" The great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances as though they were realities" -- Machiavelli

Determined Designs Web Solutions Lijit Search
ARCHIVES
02/01/2003 - 03/01/2003 / 03/01/2003 - 04/01/2003 / 04/01/2003 - 05/01/2003 / 05/01/2003 - 06/01/2003 / 06/01/2003 - 07/01/2003 / 07/01/2003 - 08/01/2003 / 08/01/2003 - 09/01/2003 / 09/01/2003 - 10/01/2003 / 10/01/2003 - 11/01/2003 / 11/01/2003 - 12/01/2003 / 12/01/2003 - 01/01/2004 / 01/01/2004 - 02/01/2004 / 02/01/2004 - 03/01/2004 / 03/01/2004 - 04/01/2004 / 04/01/2004 - 05/01/2004 / 05/01/2004 - 06/01/2004 / 06/01/2004 - 07/01/2004 / 07/01/2004 - 08/01/2004 / 08/01/2004 - 09/01/2004 / 09/01/2004 - 10/01/2004 / 10/01/2004 - 11/01/2004 / 11/01/2004 - 12/01/2004 / 12/01/2004 - 01/01/2005 / 01/01/2005 - 02/01/2005 / 02/01/2005 - 03/01/2005 / 03/01/2005 - 04/01/2005 / 04/01/2005 - 05/01/2005 / 05/01/2005 - 06/01/2005 / 06/01/2005 - 07/01/2005 / 07/01/2005 - 08/01/2005 / 08/01/2005 - 09/01/2005 / 09/01/2005 - 10/01/2005 / 10/01/2005 - 11/01/2005 / 11/01/2005 - 12/01/2005 / 12/01/2005 - 01/01/2006 / 01/01/2006 - 02/01/2006 / 02/01/2006 - 03/01/2006 / 03/01/2006 - 04/01/2006 / 04/01/2006 - 05/01/2006 / 05/01/2006 - 06/01/2006 / 06/01/2006 - 07/01/2006 / 07/01/2006 - 08/01/2006 / 08/01/2006 - 09/01/2006 / 09/01/2006 - 10/01/2006 / 10/01/2006 - 11/01/2006 / 11/01/2006 - 12/01/2006 / 12/01/2006 - 01/01/2007 / 01/01/2007 - 02/01/2007 / 02/01/2007 - 03/01/2007 / 03/01/2007 - 04/01/2007 / 04/01/2007 - 05/01/2007 / 05/01/2007 - 06/01/2007 / 06/01/2007 - 07/01/2007 / 07/01/2007 - 08/01/2007 / 08/01/2007 - 09/01/2007 / 09/01/2007 - 10/01/2007 / 10/01/2007 - 11/01/2007 / 11/01/2007 - 12/01/2007 /



follow zenpundit at http://twitter.com
This plugin requires Adobe Flash 9.
Get this widget!
Sphere Featured Blogs Powered by Blogger StatisfyZenpundit

Site Feed Who Links Here
Buzztracker daily image Blogroll Me!