Monday, March 13, 2006
DEVOLUTION AND DECENTRALIZATION: MARKET-STATE SECURITY
John Robb of Global Guerillas has an article at Fast Company entitled " Security: Power to the People". An excerpt:
"Warren Buffett's NetJets--will cater to this group, leapfrogging its members from one secure, well-appointed lily pad to the next. Members of the middle class will follow, taking matters into their own hands by forming suburban collectives to share the costs of security--as they do now with education--and shore up delivery of critical services. These "armored suburbs" will deploy and maintain backup generators and communications links; they will be patrolled by civilian police auxiliaries that have received corporate training and boast their own state-of-the-art emergency-response systems. As for those without the means to build their own defense, they will have to make do with the remains of the national system. They will gravitate to America's cities, where they will be subject to ubiquitous surveillance and marginal or nonexistent services. For the poor, there will be no other refuge.
Until, that is, the next wave of adaptive innovation takes hold. For all of these changes may prove to be exactly the kind of creative destruction we need to move beyond the current, failed state of affairs. By 2016 and beyond, real long-term solutions will emerge. Cities, most acutely affected by the new disruptions, will move fastest to become self-reliant, drawing from a wellspring of new ideas the market will put forward. These will range from building-based solar systems from firms such as Energy Innovations to privatized disaster and counterterrorist responses. We will also see the emergence of packaged software that combines real-time information (the status of first-responder units and facilities) with interactive content (information from citizens) and rich sources of data (satellite maps). Corporate communications monopolies will crumble as cities build their own emergency wireless networks using simple products from companies such as Proxim."
Have to say right off the bat that " Armored Suburbs" is a damn fine meme on its own.
John has his fingers on all the entropic pulses at work on the edges of the globalized Core and the evolving networks that may stitch societies and states back together in response to destructive forces or independently of them. ¶ 7:19 PM
John Robb of Global Guerillas has an article at Fast Company entitled " Security: Power to the People". An excerpt:
"Warren Buffett's NetJets--will cater to this group, leapfrogging its members from one secure, well-appointed lily pad to the next. Members of the middle class will follow, taking matters into their own hands by forming suburban collectives to share the costs of security--as they do now with education--and shore up delivery of critical services. These "armored suburbs" will deploy and maintain backup generators and communications links; they will be patrolled by civilian police auxiliaries that have received corporate training and boast their own state-of-the-art emergency-response systems. As for those without the means to build their own defense, they will have to make do with the remains of the national system. They will gravitate to America's cities, where they will be subject to ubiquitous surveillance and marginal or nonexistent services. For the poor, there will be no other refuge.
Until, that is, the next wave of adaptive innovation takes hold. For all of these changes may prove to be exactly the kind of creative destruction we need to move beyond the current, failed state of affairs. By 2016 and beyond, real long-term solutions will emerge. Cities, most acutely affected by the new disruptions, will move fastest to become self-reliant, drawing from a wellspring of new ideas the market will put forward. These will range from building-based solar systems from firms such as Energy Innovations to privatized disaster and counterterrorist responses. We will also see the emergence of packaged software that combines real-time information (the status of first-responder units and facilities) with interactive content (information from citizens) and rich sources of data (satellite maps). Corporate communications monopolies will crumble as cities build their own emergency wireless networks using simple products from companies such as Proxim."
Have to say right off the bat that " Armored Suburbs" is a damn fine meme on its own.
John has his fingers on all the entropic pulses at work on the edges of the globalized Core and the evolving networks that may stitch societies and states back together in response to destructive forces or independently of them. ¶ 7:19 PM
Comments:
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Mark - to me, the article reads like either a parody of the plot of Neal Stephenson's Snow Crash or a fantasy for jaded investors in tech and defense stocks. I do enjoy reading your stuff, and respect your intelligence and breadth of knowledge, but - no offense - this aricle is crazy. Do you really believe it's sound reasoning?
-M
-M
Hi Mithras,
Actually, I have been critical of John and the related 4GW school for focusing primarily on destructive, deconstructive effects of economic and political trends and/or systempunkt guerilla warfare tactics to the exclusion of all the positive, integrating, nonzero sum trends that are going on simultaneously.
Without taking both sides of the coin into consideration creates a myopic ( or in this case, dystopic) analysis - hence the dark scenario painted in the article. Myself, in the long run, I believe the positive/nonzero sum trends are dominant and mitigate the worst-case scenarios from coming to pass ( at least most of the time).
OTOH John is a very, very, smart guy and the edgy, emerging trends he discusses are real and bear close scrutiny by investors and policy makers even if the longitudinal outcomes may be different than what Robb predicts.
Futurism is a lot like a batting average in MLB - a .350 career hitter is pretty good.
Actually, I have been critical of John and the related 4GW school for focusing primarily on destructive, deconstructive effects of economic and political trends and/or systempunkt guerilla warfare tactics to the exclusion of all the positive, integrating, nonzero sum trends that are going on simultaneously.
Without taking both sides of the coin into consideration creates a myopic ( or in this case, dystopic) analysis - hence the dark scenario painted in the article. Myself, in the long run, I believe the positive/nonzero sum trends are dominant and mitigate the worst-case scenarios from coming to pass ( at least most of the time).
OTOH John is a very, very, smart guy and the edgy, emerging trends he discusses are real and bear close scrutiny by investors and policy makers even if the longitudinal outcomes may be different than what Robb predicts.
Futurism is a lot like a batting average in MLB - a .350 career hitter is pretty good.
Not a problem.
Herman Kahn, the late futurist and nuclear war strategist, had short papers on the abuses of, uses for and construction of hypotheical scenarios at Hudson.
http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=2214
http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=2216
http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=2215
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Herman Kahn, the late futurist and nuclear war strategist, had short papers on the abuses of, uses for and construction of hypotheical scenarios at Hudson.
http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=2214
http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=2216
http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=2215
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