Monday, January 08, 2007
CHICAGO BOYZ: REVIEWING ANNIHILATION FROM WITHIN
At Chicago Boyz, Jay Manifold has recently reviewed Annihilation From Within by leading defense intellectual and former Reagan administration official, Fred. C. Ikle (I have ordered this book from Amazon as, inexplicably, it was not on the shelves at any Border's in the Chicago area). An excerpt of Manifold's review:
"I summarize AfW’s main points as follows:
*Science, having become unmoored from political and religious constraints in the 18th century, is the dominant risk-enhancing (if not risk-creating) force in the world today
*Science is a self-sustaining enterprise characterized by effectively unidirectional progress and the development of an immense array of dual-use technologies, making ever-more-dangerous weapons accessible to ever-smaller organizations
*Culture, by contrast, is in a random walk; there is no such thing as “progress,” in the sense occurring in science, taking place in art, politics, or religion
*Science also poses a growing and critical challenge to religion, in the form of imminent and substantial (if not indefinite) life extension, as well as the possibility of a combination of artificial-intelligence technologies with human brains
*The only institution capable of managing large-scale risks, such as those posed by ubiquitous dual-use technologies, is the nation-state
*What matters more than the terroristic use of WMD, however calamitous, is the aftermath of any such incident
*In particular, a charismatic and unscrupulous political leader could use a small number of WMDs to decapitate the leadership of a nation, even a large democratic nation, and seize power
*In general, the likely mass-psychological effects of terroristic use of WMD and subsequent implosion of a major nation-state are far more frightening than the likely scale of immediate casualties in such an event, immense as it may be
*Fortunately, specific historical lessons, especially from World War II and the Cold War, may be constructively applied to this situation
*Prompt measures should be taken to: detect nuclear bombs; assure the continuity of the US government; enact mobilization laws; guard our territorial sovereignty; and enhance national unity "
Manifold goes on to write a thoughtful critique of Ikle's arguments, contesting some but underscoring others, suc as:
"If anything, AfW understates the likely pace of future technological advance. My impression is that most educated Americans, Iklé included, have a mental picture of the technology of 2100 which is, in fact, about where we’ll be by 2030 at the latest. Of course, this implies that some of his concerns may therefore be even more urgent than he argues".
An excellent review of an important book. One that has made me look forward to getting my hands on a copy all the more. ¶ 8:11 AM
At Chicago Boyz, Jay Manifold has recently reviewed Annihilation From Within by leading defense intellectual and former Reagan administration official, Fred. C. Ikle (I have ordered this book from Amazon as, inexplicably, it was not on the shelves at any Border's in the Chicago area). An excerpt of Manifold's review:
"I summarize AfW’s main points as follows:
*Science, having become unmoored from political and religious constraints in the 18th century, is the dominant risk-enhancing (if not risk-creating) force in the world today
*Science is a self-sustaining enterprise characterized by effectively unidirectional progress and the development of an immense array of dual-use technologies, making ever-more-dangerous weapons accessible to ever-smaller organizations
*Culture, by contrast, is in a random walk; there is no such thing as “progress,” in the sense occurring in science, taking place in art, politics, or religion
*Science also poses a growing and critical challenge to religion, in the form of imminent and substantial (if not indefinite) life extension, as well as the possibility of a combination of artificial-intelligence technologies with human brains
*The only institution capable of managing large-scale risks, such as those posed by ubiquitous dual-use technologies, is the nation-state
*What matters more than the terroristic use of WMD, however calamitous, is the aftermath of any such incident
*In particular, a charismatic and unscrupulous political leader could use a small number of WMDs to decapitate the leadership of a nation, even a large democratic nation, and seize power
*In general, the likely mass-psychological effects of terroristic use of WMD and subsequent implosion of a major nation-state are far more frightening than the likely scale of immediate casualties in such an event, immense as it may be
*Fortunately, specific historical lessons, especially from World War II and the Cold War, may be constructively applied to this situation
*Prompt measures should be taken to: detect nuclear bombs; assure the continuity of the US government; enact mobilization laws; guard our territorial sovereignty; and enhance national unity "
Manifold goes on to write a thoughtful critique of Ikle's arguments, contesting some but underscoring others, suc as:
"If anything, AfW understates the likely pace of future technological advance. My impression is that most educated Americans, Iklé included, have a mental picture of the technology of 2100 which is, in fact, about where we’ll be by 2030 at the latest. Of course, this implies that some of his concerns may therefore be even more urgent than he argues".
An excellent review of an important book. One that has made me look forward to getting my hands on a copy all the more. ¶ 8:11 AM
Comments:
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Wow, I might have to pick up the book just to read how goddamn biased and wrong it sounds.
Also ... someone should start writing a book about nation-states as victims.
"Oh, poor nation states, the tools that the techno-centric pentagon culture have been cultivating since WW2 is now in the hands of the pissed off psychotic members of the world. Woe is the nation-state ... wooooe."
That's a good review and rebuttal by the ChicagoBoyz too.
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Also ... someone should start writing a book about nation-states as victims.
"Oh, poor nation states, the tools that the techno-centric pentagon culture have been cultivating since WW2 is now in the hands of the pissed off psychotic members of the world. Woe is the nation-state ... wooooe."
That's a good review and rebuttal by the ChicagoBoyz too.
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