AN ALLIANCE OF NECESSITY ?
This is a passing thought more than a substantive post but it seems to me that increasingly America's alliances will become dissected by the diverging legal and military realities of the Core and the Gap.
Our political allies will remain the Europeans and Japan - the Kantian Rule set Old Core - that have essentially made the economic choice to eschew the ability to project much military power. Great Britain is currently an exception as they retain substantial military capability and political will to tackle Leviathan type interventions. This however will change when the British begin integrating some of their key combat ready units with those of the French
, gaining nothing for British interests but giving Paris an effective veto over British participation in future interventions. As the last few years have shown, if the French have a veto, they will obstruct because they are a status quo power deeply invested in maximizing the spread of Kantian Rule sets in the Core. The world is changing, moving " backwards" from their perspective and the French are doing their best to yell " halt! " ( or " s'arrêter! " ).
America's military allies, and I use the term " ally" loosely because we are less likely to be bound by formal treaty than by mutual interests, will be the New Core states of Russia, India, China and Israel plus always reliable " old Core" Australia and the odd opportunistic regional power. Sort of a "Coalitions of the Willing and Able " scenario. What we have in common with these states is that all of them face potential threats- often from militant Islamists or ethnic separtists- that require real and robust military responses with rules of engagement written by field generals instead of lawyers working for Amnesty International. It is to these states that America will increasingly look to for military cooperation. Indeed, many of the interventions are apt to take place on the Gap borderlands of these New Core states.
UPDATE: No sooner do I write this but I get a report from the Belmont Club regarding the EU reaction to the slaughter in Russia
that basically proves my point with greater eloquence than I can muster.