Wednesday, May 09, 2007
HAMMES ON 5GW
Colonel Thomas X. Hammes, author of the critically acclaimed The Sling and The Stone, opines on the nature of 5GW at DNI.
" Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges " (PDF)
After surveying the evolution of 4GW, Hammes errs on the side of caution while speculating on the possible form that 5GW might take. Like John Robb, Hammes sees the potential for superempowered groups motivated by primary loyalties; as with Fred Ikle, the proliferation of potentially deadly dual-use technologies figures significantly. Like Chet Richards and Peter Singer, Hammes is interested in the growing role of PMCs.
In terms of alternative defense thought, Hammes has put up a solid, consensus-building, article. I think however, we may be reaching the stage where we need to try and envision the unexpected, in terms of the evolution of 5GW. Extrapolating linear trajectories from current military practice has been a fertile field for 4GW theory and for visualizing 5GW . I worry however that we ("we" meaning broadly all those think and care about such matters) are unwisely crafting a box of expectations for ourselves. Narrowly framing our premises inevitably creates a lacuna of inattention to other variables.
Perhaps, we need to consider a stage of scenario exercises mixing military theorists with experts from radically different domains, perhaps alongside some horizontal thinking visionaries, futurists and science fiction writers
ADDENDUM:
*ARHERRING* has extended commentary on Hammes at Dreaming 5GW ( Thank you for the correction, Curtis. Apologies to Arherring for my mistake).
Colonel Thomas X. Hammes, author of the critically acclaimed The Sling and The Stone, opines on the nature of 5GW at DNI.
" Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges " (PDF)
After surveying the evolution of 4GW, Hammes errs on the side of caution while speculating on the possible form that 5GW might take. Like John Robb, Hammes sees the potential for superempowered groups motivated by primary loyalties; as with Fred Ikle, the proliferation of potentially deadly dual-use technologies figures significantly. Like Chet Richards and Peter Singer, Hammes is interested in the growing role of PMCs.
In terms of alternative defense thought, Hammes has put up a solid, consensus-building, article. I think however, we may be reaching the stage where we need to try and envision the unexpected, in terms of the evolution of 5GW. Extrapolating linear trajectories from current military practice has been a fertile field for 4GW theory and for visualizing 5GW . I worry however that we ("we" meaning broadly all those think and care about such matters) are unwisely crafting a box of expectations for ourselves. Narrowly framing our premises inevitably creates a lacuna of inattention to other variables.
Perhaps, we need to consider a stage of scenario exercises mixing military theorists with experts from radically different domains, perhaps alongside some horizontal thinking visionaries, futurists and science fiction writers
ADDENDUM:
*ARHERRING* has extended commentary on Hammes at Dreaming 5GW ( Thank you for the correction, Curtis. Apologies to Arherring for my mistake).
Labels: 4GW, 5GW, dni, hammes, horizontal thinking, military, theory, war
¶ 9:38 AM
Comments:
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I offered commentary in the comments...but Arherring wrote the post!
I did expand on my comments here, though.
My worry is that Hammes' focus on high-tech, which sounds like a pretty good guess given the types of technology we can imagine being made available to anyone with the will to acquire it, may cause the myopia you mention. Lot's of people thought Jesus was going to return in 1900 with the turn of that century, too.
I did expand on my comments here, though.
My worry is that Hammes' focus on high-tech, which sounds like a pretty good guess given the types of technology we can imagine being made available to anyone with the will to acquire it, may cause the myopia you mention. Lot's of people thought Jesus was going to return in 1900 with the turn of that century, too.
I admire T.X.'s work, from his days as the Fleet Marine Officer at THIRDFLT in the mid-90s. My take on his "technology" spin is that the technology is the media by which perceptions are influenced -- and that the rampant interconnectedness that defines our age is a tool that is (and will be) exploited. Don't read any more into it than that.
My personal take on 5GW is that it is focused entirely on what we perceive. To follow the logic of "generational" warfare, I have used Mel Gibson movie references in the past to describe "generations" of war (Braveheart to The Patriot to Gallipoli to We Were Soldiers to Mad Max), but may have to break the model for the best characterization of 5GW: The Matrix.
I choose The Matrix not for the ubertechnology, but for the focus on altering our perceptions at their most fundamental level. We already see vestiges of 5GW in our everyday lives (ads, marketing, subliminal imagery, etc.); think of how our adversaries manipulate one's base perceptions to influence actions.
This gives all the more urgency to a rigorous examination of strategic communications proficiencies. Even the mundane world of prime time TV is prone to 5GW "attacks" (e.g., "Vote for the Worst" and the impact on Fox's American Idol).
sf/ shane
My personal take on 5GW is that it is focused entirely on what we perceive. To follow the logic of "generational" warfare, I have used Mel Gibson movie references in the past to describe "generations" of war (Braveheart to The Patriot to Gallipoli to We Were Soldiers to Mad Max), but may have to break the model for the best characterization of 5GW: The Matrix.
I choose The Matrix not for the ubertechnology, but for the focus on altering our perceptions at their most fundamental level. We already see vestiges of 5GW in our everyday lives (ads, marketing, subliminal imagery, etc.); think of how our adversaries manipulate one's base perceptions to influence actions.
This gives all the more urgency to a rigorous examination of strategic communications proficiencies. Even the mundane world of prime time TV is prone to 5GW "attacks" (e.g., "Vote for the Worst" and the impact on Fox's American Idol).
sf/ shane
Hi Shane,
"This gives all the more urgency to a rigorous examination of strategic communications proficiencies..."
Ha! That would force the NCW and 4GW communities to start talking about common ground instead of hurling abuse at one another at separate conferences and websites.
That kind of synthesis would be a good move in my view. I've always thought that Cebrowski's formulation of moving information to the point of organizational self-synchronization is highly compatible with 4GW ( provided the information is made available in order for spontaneous initiative to take place throughout the ranks rather than to squelch it)
" choose The Matrix not for the ubertechnology, but for the focus on altering our perceptions at their most fundamental level"
Great analogy - I think that goes to "shaping the battlespace" as well as the mental level of warfare.
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"This gives all the more urgency to a rigorous examination of strategic communications proficiencies..."
Ha! That would force the NCW and 4GW communities to start talking about common ground instead of hurling abuse at one another at separate conferences and websites.
That kind of synthesis would be a good move in my view. I've always thought that Cebrowski's formulation of moving information to the point of organizational self-synchronization is highly compatible with 4GW ( provided the information is made available in order for spontaneous initiative to take place throughout the ranks rather than to squelch it)
" choose The Matrix not for the ubertechnology, but for the focus on altering our perceptions at their most fundamental level"
Great analogy - I think that goes to "shaping the battlespace" as well as the mental level of warfare.
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