ZenPundit
Thursday, September 06, 2007
HEY...VALDIS KREBS HAS A BLOG!
Social networking theorist/mapper Valdis Krebs, has a blog, Network Weaving. How'd I miss that one ?
Hat tip to Der Shlokmeister.
Social networking theorist/mapper Valdis Krebs, has a blog, Network Weaving. How'd I miss that one ?
Hat tip to Der Shlokmeister.
Labels: network theory, networks, shloky, social networks, valdis krebs
¶ 8:50 PM 2 comments
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
ROBB'S COMING URBAN TERROR
New article in The City Journal by John Robb.
John is in the important post-publication stage of proselytizing his work and worldview which he introduces well to City Journal readers. As someone more familiar with Global Guerillas, I especially liked John's neat summative explanation of networks, tight coupling and cascading effects in a social-political-economic-infrastructural complex system.
Network theory is one of the key concepts for the intelligent public to understand for the 21st century.
New article in The City Journal by John Robb.
John is in the important post-publication stage of proselytizing his work and worldview which he introduces well to City Journal readers. As someone more familiar with Global Guerillas, I especially liked John's neat summative explanation of networks, tight coupling and cascading effects in a social-political-economic-infrastructural complex system.
Network theory is one of the key concepts for the intelligent public to understand for the 21st century.
Labels: 4GW, complex systems, complexity, global guerillas, john robb, network theory, networks, social networks, terrorism
¶ 8:35 AM 0 comments
Sunday, July 22, 2007
ON THE FRONTIERS OF WEB 2.0
PC World magazine has named their " 25 Websites to Watch" ( hat tip to Mrs. Zenpundit) though how many will still exist in 2 years is an open question. Some of these, I have immediate use for; others, I'm not sure how anyone outside of an undergraduate munching cheetos in a dorm room will have the time. I suggest you read the article, as my opinion on tech matters is of negligible weight.
Here are the sites they have chosen by category and see for yourselves. Epistles from the tecno-geek blog set, on the merits of any of these sites, are welcomed.
Mashups, Maps, and More:
Popfly, Yahoo Pipes, BuzzDash, Wayfaring, CircleUp .
Organizers, Searchers and Optimizers:
Pageflakes, Spock, Swivel, Clipmarks, OpenDNS .
Real Estate, Bookmarks and Blogs:
Trulia, PopURLs, Groowy, BlogBackupOnline, Ma.gnolia .
Five ways to Create and Share:
Yodio, Meebo Rooms, Squidoo, SpashCast, Eyespot .
Sites for Collaborative Work and Play:
Approver, Pbwiki, MyPunchBowl, Picnik, Quintura .
PC World magazine has named their " 25 Websites to Watch" ( hat tip to Mrs. Zenpundit) though how many will still exist in 2 years is an open question. Some of these, I have immediate use for; others, I'm not sure how anyone outside of an undergraduate munching cheetos in a dorm room will have the time. I suggest you read the article, as my opinion on tech matters is of negligible weight.
Here are the sites they have chosen by category and see for yourselves. Epistles from the tecno-geek blog set, on the merits of any of these sites, are welcomed.
Mashups, Maps, and More:
Popfly, Yahoo Pipes, BuzzDash, Wayfaring, CircleUp .
Organizers, Searchers and Optimizers:
Pageflakes, Spock, Swivel, Clipmarks, OpenDNS .
Real Estate, Bookmarks and Blogs:
Trulia, PopURLs, Groowy, BlogBackupOnline, Ma.gnolia .
Five ways to Create and Share:
Yodio, Meebo Rooms, Squidoo, SpashCast, Eyespot .
Sites for Collaborative Work and Play:
Approver, Pbwiki, MyPunchBowl, Picnik, Quintura .
Labels: blogging, computers, fun, social networks, tech, web 2.0
¶ 3:52 PM 5 comments
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
BRIEF MUSINGS
I'm preparing to leave town on another trip and find myself overstretched in terms of time but I have to note that Kent's Imperative had some intriguing posts up ( hat tip to Michael Tanji) , about which I'd like to offer a few comments:
"Life at Google from an outside perspective"
Aside from seeing how uber-techies live and making me nostalgic about past years of reading defector-dissident Soviet bloc lit, I'd like to highlight this passage regarding a KI suggestion to the IC for personnel reform:
"A chance for line level workers to do the kind of intel they want to do (versus the latest crisis they have been thrown into), at least part of the time? Or to contribute to the literature of intelligence? (Modeled along Google’s 20% time.)"
My unqualified guess is that this would increase the productivity and prescience of the IC by roughly the same proportion that expanding private farming helped the Chinese economy under Deng Xiaoping. People typically generate their most valuable insights about those subjects which they are both curious as well as passionate - i.e. earlier in the learning curve than the status of graybeard authority ( once you think you know everything, you tend to stop learning).
The bar to doing this is not a manpower shortage but a middle-management fear of subordinate autonomy. Forcing a talented subordinate to do irrelevant busywork confirms a manager's authority and power. Autonomous subordinates who do self-directed productive work tend to confirm the irrelevance of middle-management. Few managers have the psychological wherewithal to be adept facilitators, mentors or coaches of gifted employees as an efficient "management" outlook is an inimical perspective to generating creativity and sustaining " unproductive" exploration.
"Regional versus functional issue accounts"
From a historian's perspective, a cool post ( perhaps less interesting to others). Some historiography, lots of methodology. Money quote/conclusion:
"As for our opinions on the great divide between the two kinds of houses, we find ourselves veterans of uniquely transnational issues, having been subject to every manner of surge and task force and working group and crisis cell, in the most unusual of niches. We prefer to see small, aggressive, ad-hoc structures comprised of both analysts and operators from a wide range of issues and regional desks with interests and equities in the same target which overlaps their accounts. Only then, by throwing everything against the wall in a structure short lived enough to avoid its own bureaucracy, and disconnected enough to be (at least partially) immune from the day to day politics within a given agency or office, have we found the kind of answers we sought regarding the great questions of process.
We strongly believe such radically unstable and short lived environments are most effective because they are the very manifestation of Schumpeter’s process of creative destruction. It is certainly no way to create a sinecure, nor even to build a long term career path – but it is the best way we have found to generate new and innovative approaches and answers to hard target problems, and to the problems others have not yet begun to identify let alone address."
Hear, Hear! Very strong agreement in a John Arqilla-esque vein.
It will happen but not until after several more disasters force that kind of transformation or an unusually bold and subtle visionary implements it on the quiet. There is far too much bureaucratic inertia because the vested interests prefer paralysis in which they hold the reins to successful action where they become recognized for the marginalized support staff they really are.
In my turn, if any KI gents happen upon this post, I suggest they look here. From this acorn of an idea, an oak will grow. Mark my words.
I'm preparing to leave town on another trip and find myself overstretched in terms of time but I have to note that Kent's Imperative had some intriguing posts up ( hat tip to Michael Tanji) , about which I'd like to offer a few comments:
"Life at Google from an outside perspective"
Aside from seeing how uber-techies live and making me nostalgic about past years of reading defector-dissident Soviet bloc lit, I'd like to highlight this passage regarding a KI suggestion to the IC for personnel reform:
"A chance for line level workers to do the kind of intel they want to do (versus the latest crisis they have been thrown into), at least part of the time? Or to contribute to the literature of intelligence? (Modeled along Google’s 20% time.)"
My unqualified guess is that this would increase the productivity and prescience of the IC by roughly the same proportion that expanding private farming helped the Chinese economy under Deng Xiaoping. People typically generate their most valuable insights about those subjects which they are both curious as well as passionate - i.e. earlier in the learning curve than the status of graybeard authority ( once you think you know everything, you tend to stop learning).
The bar to doing this is not a manpower shortage but a middle-management fear of subordinate autonomy. Forcing a talented subordinate to do irrelevant busywork confirms a manager's authority and power. Autonomous subordinates who do self-directed productive work tend to confirm the irrelevance of middle-management. Few managers have the psychological wherewithal to be adept facilitators, mentors or coaches of gifted employees as an efficient "management" outlook is an inimical perspective to generating creativity and sustaining " unproductive" exploration.
"Regional versus functional issue accounts"
From a historian's perspective, a cool post ( perhaps less interesting to others). Some historiography, lots of methodology. Money quote/conclusion:
"As for our opinions on the great divide between the two kinds of houses, we find ourselves veterans of uniquely transnational issues, having been subject to every manner of surge and task force and working group and crisis cell, in the most unusual of niches. We prefer to see small, aggressive, ad-hoc structures comprised of both analysts and operators from a wide range of issues and regional desks with interests and equities in the same target which overlaps their accounts. Only then, by throwing everything against the wall in a structure short lived enough to avoid its own bureaucracy, and disconnected enough to be (at least partially) immune from the day to day politics within a given agency or office, have we found the kind of answers we sought regarding the great questions of process.
We strongly believe such radically unstable and short lived environments are most effective because they are the very manifestation of Schumpeter’s process of creative destruction. It is certainly no way to create a sinecure, nor even to build a long term career path – but it is the best way we have found to generate new and innovative approaches and answers to hard target problems, and to the problems others have not yet begun to identify let alone address."
Hear, Hear! Very strong agreement in a John Arqilla-esque vein.
It will happen but not until after several more disasters force that kind of transformation or an unusually bold and subtle visionary implements it on the quiet. There is far too much bureaucratic inertia because the vested interests prefer paralysis in which they hold the reins to successful action where they become recognized for the marginalized support staff they really are.
In my turn, if any KI gents happen upon this post, I suggest they look here. From this acorn of an idea, an oak will grow. Mark my words.
Labels: analytic, CIA, haft of the spear, IC, ideas, innovation, insight, intelligence, kent's imperative, networks, social networks, synthesis, tanji, theory, visualization
¶ 8:25 PM 3 comments
Saturday, June 30, 2007
TWITTER....TWITTER
At the behest of Critt, I'm now on twitter as a complement to the blog. Sean and Dan are with me so at least I'm not out there shouting into the wind.
I'll give twitter a fair trial. The geek world, of which I claim no membership in due to technical incompetence and sheer lack of time to fully investigate, seems to be very excited about this app ( though not everybody). Rick Klau (previous link) called it "micro blogging" which I think is probably a sustainable, cognitive format for holding attention, moreso than "hey...I'm going to take a shower now" type messages, which would become a tyranny of the mundane once the novelty of using twitter wears off.
We get a mental "charge" or arousal from connectivity with another personwith the social networking aspect but without some kind of interesting content to sustain the connection, our attention is apt to wander.
At the behest of Critt, I'm now on twitter as a complement to the blog. Sean and Dan are with me so at least I'm not out there shouting into the wind.
I'll give twitter a fair trial. The geek world, of which I claim no membership in due to technical incompetence and sheer lack of time to fully investigate, seems to be very excited about this app ( though not everybody). Rick Klau (previous link) called it "micro blogging" which I think is probably a sustainable, cognitive format for holding attention, moreso than "hey...I'm going to take a shower now" type messages, which would become a tyranny of the mundane once the novelty of using twitter wears off.
We get a mental "charge" or arousal from connectivity with another personwith the social networking aspect but without some kind of interesting content to sustain the connection, our attention is apt to wander.
Labels: blogging, cognition, networks, social networks, twitter
¶ 7:35 AM 0 comments
Saturday, June 09, 2007
THERE'S A FINE LINE BETWEEN AN ACT OF PIRACY AND JUST SIMPLY TAKING SOME INITIATIVE
A fascinating economics paper sent to me by Fabius Maximus (hat tip accorded) that took me a few days to get to reading. Wish I had looked at it earlier:
"An-arrgh-chy: The Law and economics of Pirate Organizations" (PDF) by Dr. Peter T. Leeson
Peterson argues that historical pirates, far from being Hobbesian outlaws, governed themselves with rule-sets that minimized conflict and maximized cooperation and profit ( albeit at the expense of civilized seafaring states). Looking at broad principles of functionality, Leeson's work is applicable to other violent non-state actors - Latin American drug cartels, 4GW insurgencies and terror networks, warlord and sectarian militias, Bunker's 3 Gen gangs, TOC groups like Chinese Triads and Russian mafiya and so on.
This argument struck a chord with me on two points. First, it mirrors the historical experience of traditional Russian banditry where robber chieftains ruled over there fellows according to "Thieves Law", something Solzhenitsyn discusses at length in The Gulag Archipelago.
Secondly, network theory research indicates that small systems that seem chaotic or "noisy" actually develop emergent rule-sets that bring the system into an orderly pattern, even if the rules and patterns are very simple ones. A pirate ship, even a fleet, much like a terrorist network, is simply a small, complex, social network. Rules accepted on a consensual basis cut down on " noise" and allow the network to become more efficient.
A must read.
A fascinating economics paper sent to me by Fabius Maximus (hat tip accorded) that took me a few days to get to reading. Wish I had looked at it earlier:
"An-arrgh-chy: The Law and economics of Pirate Organizations" (PDF) by Dr. Peter T. Leeson
Peterson argues that historical pirates, far from being Hobbesian outlaws, governed themselves with rule-sets that minimized conflict and maximized cooperation and profit ( albeit at the expense of civilized seafaring states). Looking at broad principles of functionality, Leeson's work is applicable to other violent non-state actors - Latin American drug cartels, 4GW insurgencies and terror networks, warlord and sectarian militias, Bunker's 3 Gen gangs, TOC groups like Chinese Triads and Russian mafiya and so on.
This argument struck a chord with me on two points. First, it mirrors the historical experience of traditional Russian banditry where robber chieftains ruled over there fellows according to "Thieves Law", something Solzhenitsyn discusses at length in The Gulag Archipelago.
Secondly, network theory research indicates that small systems that seem chaotic or "noisy" actually develop emergent rule-sets that bring the system into an orderly pattern, even if the rules and patterns are very simple ones. A pirate ship, even a fleet, much like a terrorist network, is simply a small, complex, social network. Rules accepted on a consensual basis cut down on " noise" and allow the network to become more efficient.
A must read.
Labels: economics, fabius maximus, navy, network theory, networks, non-state actors, piracy, social networks, terrorism, theory, transnational criminal organization
¶ 7:25 PM 2 comments
Thursday, May 10, 2007
CURRENTLY READING...
Ok, just started the first chapter in each, so I have little to say - but here they are!
Wikinomics
Medici Effect
Wealth of Networks
They have reinvigorated my interest in a currently moribund collaborative project with Dr.Von (hmmm...his blog seems a touch moribund as well- political office must be eating up all his time LOL!) Perhaps, if I can get some serious momentum going on it this summer, he'll hop back on the bandwagon.
Ok, just started the first chapter in each, so I have little to say - but here they are!
Wikinomics
Medici Effect
Wealth of Networks
They have reinvigorated my interest in a currently moribund collaborative project with Dr.Von (hmmm...his blog seems a touch moribund as well- political office must be eating up all his time LOL!) Perhaps, if I can get some serious momentum going on it this summer, he'll hop back on the bandwagon.
Labels: book, business, complex systems, complexity, consilience, creativity, economics, horizontal thinking, medici effect, networks, social networks, theory, wikinomics
¶ 10:18 AM 3 comments
Friday, May 04, 2007
NETWORKS HIT THE MAINSTREAM
About time.
FORBES - "Special ReportNetworks"
(Hat tip to Dave Davison)
About time.
FORBES - "Special ReportNetworks"
(Hat tip to Dave Davison)
Labels: davison, forbes, networks, social networks
¶ 7:21 PM 0 comments
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
SIX DEGREES OF PARTICIPATION
Tech guru Ross Mayfield has an important post "Social Technographics and a Power Law of Participation" that would be of interest to most serious bloggers. In it, Mayfield analyzes the results of a demographic study that examined the nature and degree of interactivity of participation on the Web, displayed in the visual hierarchy below:
A closer look at Mayfield's visualization can be found here at Flickr
An excerpt:
"I still contend that a more ideal community is scale free in structure. What I wonder is if you could benchmark these levels of engagement against a power law -- not just to test Forrester's findings, but to help a given company realize -- "we are under-weighted in critics!"
LOL! I agree. Try to love your critics. Even when they are dead wrong they are the ( sometimes irritating) guides toward truth.
On a personal level, I am a creator and a critic foremost, followed closely by spectator. I dip my toe in being a joiner and I am not a collector at all. I'm not sure why this is. I had a bloglines account and then a blogbridge aggregator and both fell into immediate disuse. I don't subscribe to a single RSS feed and I've been told that mine malfunctions a lot. I don't do digg or that delicious thing and I understand neither. Recently, eerie, the mistress of the group blog Aqoul indicated she kept track of about 240 blogs(!). My hat is off to her, I can't muster that kind of interest.
How about you ?
Tech guru Ross Mayfield has an important post "Social Technographics and a Power Law of Participation" that would be of interest to most serious bloggers. In it, Mayfield analyzes the results of a demographic study that examined the nature and degree of interactivity of participation on the Web, displayed in the visual hierarchy below:
A closer look at Mayfield's visualization can be found here at Flickr
An excerpt:
"I still contend that a more ideal community is scale free in structure. What I wonder is if you could benchmark these levels of engagement against a power law -- not just to test Forrester's findings, but to help a given company realize -- "we are under-weighted in critics!"
LOL! I agree. Try to love your critics. Even when they are dead wrong they are the ( sometimes irritating) guides toward truth.
On a personal level, I am a creator and a critic foremost, followed closely by spectator. I dip my toe in being a joiner and I am not a collector at all. I'm not sure why this is. I had a bloglines account and then a blogbridge aggregator and both fell into immediate disuse. I don't subscribe to a single RSS feed and I've been told that mine malfunctions a lot. I don't do digg or that delicious thing and I understand neither. Recently, eerie, the mistress of the group blog Aqoul indicated she kept track of about 240 blogs(!). My hat is off to her, I can't muster that kind of interest.
How about you ?
Labels: blogging, computers, creativity, flickr, futurism, networks, ross mayfield, social networks, tech, visualization, web 2.0, youtube
¶ 10:33 AM 3 comments
Monday, April 30, 2007
SPEAKING OF UTILIZING "TRIBAL" FORMS
"Follow up on this vein of research suggests that as the task gets more complex, that decentralized networks actually do better than centralized. An interesting and relevant critique of this research, by Guetzkow and Simon (1955), was that all-channel networks can and do sometimes perform better than hub-spoke networks. That is, the performance of all channel networks was contingent on how they were used. The original Bavelas findings were based on the fact that they were usually used badly."
- David Lazer
"Bavelas revisited: hub-spoke vs all-channel networks" at Complexity and Social Networks Blog
Sounds reasonable to me. If you have ever been part of a team that seemed to reach a moment of " flow" where everyone was intuitively "in synch" in handling a creative or complicated performance task, then that dynamic probably "felt" much like the findings of the research described by Lazer.
Applicable, it seems to me, to any " free play" group learning scenario - whether it be small unit combat, improv theater, team sports and many others.
"Follow up on this vein of research suggests that as the task gets more complex, that decentralized networks actually do better than centralized. An interesting and relevant critique of this research, by Guetzkow and Simon (1955), was that all-channel networks can and do sometimes perform better than hub-spoke networks. That is, the performance of all channel networks was contingent on how they were used. The original Bavelas findings were based on the fact that they were usually used badly."
- David Lazer
"Bavelas revisited: hub-spoke vs all-channel networks" at Complexity and Social Networks Blog
Sounds reasonable to me. If you have ever been part of a team that seemed to reach a moment of " flow" where everyone was intuitively "in synch" in handling a creative or complicated performance task, then that dynamic probably "felt" much like the findings of the research described by Lazer.
Applicable, it seems to me, to any " free play" group learning scenario - whether it be small unit combat, improv theater, team sports and many others.
Labels: complexity, complexity and social networks blog, david lazer, networks, social networks, tribes
¶ 7:14 PM 0 comments
Thursday, April 12, 2007
OK, SOMEONE GEEKY EXPLAIN THIS
What's the benefit to this Jaiku social network over the other platforms ?
What's the benefit to this Jaiku social network over the other platforms ?
Labels: networks, social networks, tech
¶ 8:10 AM 0 comments
